[GonzoII]

"Carson, a political newcomer, has seen his support fade in New Hampshire since September, when he drew 17 percent support in an earlier WBUR poll."

[LS]

So much for all the “Cruz is surging/ground game” comments.

[Jim Noble]

If it’s only 22% on February 9, I will be shocked.

1) Trump is blowing out the doors in yard signs and enthusiasm,
2) Independents and Democrats can vote, and his support among congenital Democrats (a/k/a “Reagan Democrats”) is through the roof.
3) Despite what people here keep posting, NH is NOT Bush country. W got his ass kicked here in 2000.

[jmaroneps37]

Not bad for guy who was supposed to be out by August, out by September out by October ....

[arthurus]

A Trump win in New Hampshire or in any other state gets him nothing if he does not get 51%. The rules have been set this time to give the nomination to Bush no matter whether he gets any votes at all except in the primaries in Democrat states where he is expected to get majorities just by being available. The candidate has to get majorities in 8 primaries to be considered at the convention. The open primaries will have enough Democrat participation to deny any conservative a majority. Even the "closed" primaries will get a certain number of Republicans-for-a-day, especially if, as was the case in 2008 and 2012, the Democrat voters understand that they have their candidate already.

Trump, if he continues on his current trajectory, just might, however, deny Bush his expected Dem-state majorities and then the RNC would have to change the rules again or have no one oficially eligible for consideration at the convention which would throw it open to consideration of anyone at all. Even with that, the RNC controlled non primary chosen delegates could probably prevent any conservative from being nominated and a "compromise" for Rubio might well occur.

[calisurfer]

Rubio’s numbers showed no movement. A Nov 4 WBUR poll had Rubio at 11%...so his numbers have not moved in 2 weeks. Trump has moved from 18% to 22%.