Posted on 11/08/2015 4:46:15 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
November 5, 2015 7:00 pm JST
Fading loyalty may explain leader's penchant for pomp
MASANORI YAMAKUCHI, Nikkei online news deputy editor
TOKYO -- North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's decision to call the first party congress in nearly 36 years is stirring speculation about what he is up to.
The ruling Workers' Party on Oct. 30 announced that it will hold the convention in early May. The gathering, the party statement said, will present a new "strategic line" for building a "thriving socialist nation," and will galvanize the party, army and people into launching a "general offensive" toward that goal.
The announcement came less than a month after the regime staged a massive military parade to commemorate the party's 70th anniversary. Pyongyang watchers are mulling the meaning of Kim's penchant for big events.
During the era of Kim Il Sung -- the Stalinist nation's founding father and Kim Jong Un's grandfather -- the Workers' Party held a congress every 10 years or so. Officials would make decisions concerning long-term policy goals and economic plans.
The sixth party congress was held in October 1980. Kim Jong Il, the current leader's father, who was in his late 30s at the time, was made general secretary. This effectively anointed him the heir to Kim Il Sung, who died in 1994.
Kim Jong Il refrained from calling a single congress. This, according to one North Korea expert, was because he was focused on enhancing the role of the Korean People's Army under his "military first" policy. A congress would have put the party in the decision-making driver's seat.
But why is Kim Jong Un, who inherited power following his father's death in December 2011, taking a different approach?
In its Japanese-language edition, South Korea's Joongang Daily newspaper suggested that Kim Jong Un will use the congress to show his own "colors" and lay out specific policy goals. Many experts say that since he became supreme leader, the young Kim has been shifting power back toward the party.
At the convention, Kim may take the opportunity to announce reforms of the party organization and a major personnel reshuffle, in an effort to strengthen the party's influence and promote a generational transition.
Still, there may be more to his motivations.
South Korea's National Intelligence Service recently issued a report to lawmakers suggesting that loyalty to Kim is waning among the North Korean elite.
According to South Korean media, the report uses an index to gauge top North Korean officials' sense that they share a common destiny with the supreme leader. If the reading came to 100 during the reign of Kim Il Sung, it was perhaps 50-70 under Kim Jong Il. Now, it is estimated to be down to 10.
If those numbers are accurate, Kim Jong Un must be feeling some serious heat. For Kim and his brain trust, maintaining the regime is the top priority, but they need the bulk of officialdom on their side.
A North Korean defector who once worked for the Workers' Party has said that as long as the regime guarantees the livelihoods of senior officials in Pyongyang, it will never be shaken, no matter how poor ordinary citizens may be.
Leading members of the party and military, most of whom live in the capital, enjoy a range of privileges -- from ample food rations and larger homes to better educational and employment opportunities for their children. These perks are all meant to ensure loyalty to the leader.
On the other hand, there is always the threat of banishment from the elite class. One defector recounted how he suddenly received an order to leave Pyongyang for no apparent reason. Given no opportunity to defend himself nor a grace period, he and his family ran away under cover of night with nothing but the clothes on their backs. In the impoverished countryside, the chances of survival without senior-official status drops significantly. "The only consolation was that we were not sent to a concentration camp for political prisoners," he said.
Since Kim Jong Un took charge in December 2011, he has purged a number of high-ranking officials. They include Jang Song Thaek, his top adviser and uncle by marriage, and former Defense Minister Hyong Yong Chol; both were executed.
Members of the North Korean elite live in constant fear that they and their families could lose their privileges and even lives, should they somehow displease the leader. This, coupled with the allure of those privileges, is supposed to keep them in line. But the intelligence report also reveals that a growing number of officials -- mostly diplomats assigned overseas -- are defecting. Such cases increased to 18 in 2014, from eight in the previous year.
Twenty officials defected in the first 10 months of this year. This trend threatens to undermine the leader's power base.
Sparing no expense
Kim Jong Un's efforts to revitalize the nation's moribund economy have yet to pay off. He may be trying to compensate with events like the military parade and upcoming congress, portraying himself as an effective leader.
Kim also presided over a celebration for what would have been Kim Il Sung's 100th birthday in April 2012, and an event marking the 60th anniversary of the Korean War truce in July 2013. But these spectacles are expensive, especially for a poor nation like North Korea: The party's 70th anniversary bash cost an estimated 400 billion South Korean won ($350 million).
Sooner or later, Kim will be unable to rely on such displays.
P!
I know Christianity is filtering in to North Korea and along with it a modicum of literacy among common people
The internet, though perhaps not IN NK per se' (no impirical evidence) HAS to have an influence because ... well ... humans are not animals and God will find a way into a man's heart and Truth will illumine that soul ... it just HAS to be.
this is quite interesting
there is a window, but the view is obscured
What the party giveth, the party can taketh away.
After all Marxism is so great...
I hope I don't need a '/s'
there is a window, but the view is obscured
Probably be cause it made out of Obama tm. glass.
Bread and circus’s.
Wait, hold the bread.
Tree Bark for everyone.
He is going to kill them all
...and when enough of them realize that, he’s finished.
OH CHIA Chub so roaney among his people
I don’t feel sorry for him
Agreed.
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