My prognostications are often way off, but here goes: I think that this should be the final blow for Pataki. Since Gilmore hasn’t already left, he will probably still remain as a non-candidate. Graham will perhaps stay in until South Carolina, although his potentially embarrassing showing there will probably cause him to drop out beforehand. Kasich, Paul, Christie and maybe Fiorina are vulnerable and could exit soon. Huckabee will probably stay in until Iowa. Santorum has always run a low-budget, shoestring campaign and may be in it for the long haul. Jindal will stay in until Iowa. A good showing there will keep him in it for a few weeks longer. After Iowa we could be left with Trump, Carson, Rubio, Cruz, Bush, Santorum, and maybe Jindal.
Subject to change at a moments notice.
I think you are right about the initial order of departure. I do wonder when either jeb! Or Rubio depart who will inherit their support.