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Primary Guide: What do betting markets say about the candidates?
Primary Guide ^

Posted on 10/28/2015 9:54:02 AM PDT by TigerClaws

Research has shown that probabilities derived from betting markets are more accurate than polls at predicting political outcomes. For the purpose of convenience, this site lists estimated probabilities of each candidate winning a major party nomination, the general election, and the general election conditional on winning a major party nomination. It uses data from Betfair to perform the estimation.

(Excerpt) Read more at primary.guide ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Political Humor/Cartoons; Politics/Elections
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I found this website in another discussion forum. I'm NOT in any way affiliated with the site.

Thought it was interesting where the betting crowd is putting money.

Rubio. He seems to be the back up after Jeb went nowhere. Another big amnesty guy.

1 posted on 10/28/2015 9:54:02 AM PDT by TigerClaws
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To: TigerClaws

Interestingly, that site is favoring the Democrats to hold the White House in 2016. If true, that would be the first time since FDR/Truman that the Dems have held the office for more than eight years.

I wonder how much of that comes from wishful thinking by liberals who don’t have children and thus can afford to gamble on fantasy and how much is confidence in the democrat machine’s fraud talents.


2 posted on 10/28/2015 10:04:18 AM PDT by Pollster1 ("Shall not be infringed" is unambiguous.)
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To: TigerClaws

It is entirely possible that some of the candidates, particularly Hillary, have flooded that site with her supporters. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if that was the case.


3 posted on 10/28/2015 10:10:24 AM PDT by buffaloguy
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To: Pollster1
And how much of that takes into account of the millions of new-citizen voters that will be at the polls. Clinton did it to us in 96, swearing in new voters in stadiumfuls.
How much of it is due to estimations of the massive wholly illegal voting that will be occurring with the DoJ looking on to make sure no IDs are checked?
How much of it is speculation on how the Soros controlled counting of the Electronic (touch screen) votes will fall?

And we know that the illegals will be voting illegally in at least California. Of course California is already gone in the Electoral College so it doesn't matter if a billion illegal Democrat votes are added in there.

4 posted on 10/28/2015 10:49:35 AM PDT by arthurus (Het is waar. Tutti i liberali sono feccia.)
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To: TigerClaws
Thought it was interesting where the betting crowd is putting money.

More illegals bet than do citizens?

5 posted on 10/28/2015 11:25:42 AM PDT by Albion Wilde (If you can't make a deal with a politician, you can't make a deal. --Donald Trump)
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