Cruz is positioned well assuming Trump implodes.
I am having a harder and harder time seeing that happening at this point.
Short of a major shakeup Trump will win easily at this point.
Nothing short of Trump being caught in bed with a boy, or criminal charges being filed against him will stop him now, that I can see.
or if Trump stays at 25% against just one or two competitors. There's another 75% waiting for someone and a pretty big contingent of Republicans who at least claim they won't voter for Trump in the primaries.
If Trump were to win the GOP nomination would he gain Cruz supporters if he promised his first nomination to the SCOTUS would be Cruz?
Trump has that remarkable quality that Reagan had, of being able to talk to the nation over the head of the media and the powers that be. He also has the funding and the name recognition. The importance of the latter is that the media can't define him to the masses the way they did, as an example, to Palin. For Cruz, they'd create a dorky SNL character in glasses who uttered silly things in a squeaky voice, and for America, that would be Ted Cruz. They can't do that to Trump, everyone knows him from years of TV.
I do think Cruz has a slim chance of prevailing, but he would not want to be a front runner until very late in the game, at a point in time when he has a chance to define himself. I think it far more likely that Trump survives the process and the GOPe gauntlet, and if he does, Cruz's path to the presidency is much more likely by hitching himself to Trump as VP or in some other capacity than it is by running on his own.
They don't have the slightest intention of allowing Cruz to be the candidate. They just want to remove the only candidate who really can win and stop these SOBs.
Overall I agree with your comments, but this one idea seems prevalent out there, and I don't see it like this at all.
Trump pulls in people across demographic lines. Cruz doesn't and won't.
Trump is very popular. He is charismatic. He is a nationalist on fire. Cruz isn't these things. He's a good guy, but that doesn't quite cut it. Hence his current 5% standing.
Trump can win primaries because of his demographic pull across lines, but Cruz can't and won't.
I don't see Trump folks swarming behind Cruz. Trump's support will pull back into it's former demographic position. Some of it will wind dropping out entirely.
Cruz is not going to suddenly zoom to 30% if Trump drops out.
Those that really want this need to realize that if Trump drops out, we're going to get another McCain/Romney style Leftist.
Don't be supportive of Trump dropping out. If he does, this nation is done. The next four years will be that critical.
“Short of a major shakeup Trump will win easily at this point.”
Trump is the the 20s; as the rest start dropping out, Cruz can pickup the majority of those percentages; 70%+.
Trump is the least likely to win,
His in party negatives are over 60% and rising.
Christy could win easier than Trump.
Especially when Freepers refuse to see Trump for what he really is.
Cruz is going to do just fine, until he has to start pounding the table on H1-B immigration, and how firing US engineers and having them train their East Indian replacements is good for America.