Posted on 09/25/2015 5:53:31 AM PDT by sukhoi-30mki
In 1995 and 1996, Taiwanese politicians signaled greater support for declaring their island country officially independent of China. Beijing’s response was swift, forceful … and ultimately an embarrassment to China. The Chinese army fired several missiles toward small, Taiwanese-held islands.
That’s when the United States intervened in a big way, sending two entire aircraft carrier battle groups into the waters around Taiwan — and even sailing one carrier through the Taiwan Strait.
The Chinese military was powerless against this show of force. Beijing couldn’t even reliably track the American warships, and had no forces of its own capable of threatening the powerful U.S. vessels.
The Chinese backed down.
Nineteen years later, the situation has changed. According to the California think tank RAND, if the same crises occurred today, Chinese submarines could target a U.S. flattop several times during a weeklong campaign. “China has rapidly improved its ability to reliably locate and to attack U.S. carrier strike groups at distances of up to 2,000 kilometers from its coast,” RAND warned.
Beijing’s ability to target carriers from below the sea depends on two related capabilities. First, China needs modern and reliable submarines. Second, these subs need some way of finding the flattops.
As far as its sub fleet goes, China has made great progress in the two decades since the 1996 crisis. “In 1996, China had taken delivery of only two submarines that could be described, by any reasonable definition, as modern,” RAND explained. “The remainder of its fleet consisted of legacy boats based on 1950s technology, lacking teardrop shaped hulls and armed only with torpedoes.”
By 2017, China will possess a smaller but more capable undersea fleet with 49 modern subs. “China’s recent submarine classes are armed with both sophisticated cruise missiles and torpedoes, greatly increasing the range from which they can attack,” according to the think tank. “Although most Chinese boats are diesel-powered and none is not up to U.S. standards, they could nevertheless threaten U.S. surface ships.”
Just how much Beijing’s subs could attack a single American carrier during a seven-day campaign depends on what RAND called “cueing.” In other words, the ability of Chinese satellites, drones, spy planes, land-based radars and other so-called “intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance” systems, or ISR, to detect the carrier and pass along the flattop’s location to the subs.
“Improvements to Chinese ISR have improved the chances that Chinese submarines will receive such information,” RAND reported.
In 1996, Chinese subs had basically zero chances to take a shot at a U.S. carrier, with or without cueing. By 2010 that was no longer the case. Without cueing, Beijing’s subs were still pretty much blind, but with help from ISR the undersea vessels would have gotten two or three chances to attack a carrier with missiles or torpedoes.
RAND projected that, in 2017, Chinese subs with no cueing probably still won’t be able to attack a carrier. But with cueing in the same timeframe, the undersea warships could get three, four or even five chances to attack.
Of course, a chance to attack doesn’t guarantee a successful attack. And the U.S. Navy isn’t exactly standing still as Chinese forces improve, RAND pointed out. “The United States will look to counter this growing threat by developing ways to degrade Chinese intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities and by improving its own anti-missile, anti-submarine and defensive counterair capabilities.”
Who will be happier when the US Carrier Groups are
taken out?
1. the cryptoMoslem Obama?
or
2. Team Clinton?
Is not a stretch to think that technology given to China by Clinton sped up their sub development.
Made possible by the profits from one-sided trade deals with the US and other Western nations, and by purchased and stolen US military technology.
All this trade with China was supposed to turn those communists into freedom loving capitalists. That's what we would told by those who pushed trade with China for years. What happened?
This is what happens when commercial interests are put before national security and common sense.
From the headline I thought perhaps this was about a Subway franchisee named Yu-Fat Chow winning a food vending concession with the DOD.
It wasn’t just given. It was sold. It was treason for cash.
Yesterday the Chinese Premier held a command meeting on the west coast with his minions from Silicon Valley to dole out more business.
No it is not a stretch - but then all aspects of their military capabilities were sped up under Clinton because he believed, if they had the same tech they would not attack - aka the Third Way - especially since the Chinese PLA was willing to give him large “campaign” donations for each exchange ...
Shhhh. Don't tell Patriot Limbaugh, it might upset him......
First we’d have to assume Bambi would stand up to China.
He’d rather jump at every opportunity to undermine America.
The Chinese Premier is meeting Obama for dinner this evening.
Only problem with that is, half an hour later Obama will want to surrender again.
We need to be factual and fair toward the technology transfers by the klintoons.
Of course it is not true the klintoons ever GAVE the PRC or anyone else anything, much less access to high value defense technical secrets........ they TRADED them for cash.
nope- got it all wrong-
Obummer and the big commie are meeting to discuss:
1. the takeover of the Spratley islands by china
2. The annexation of sea area next to Vietnam
(the Chinese are currently -illegaly drilling for oil)
3. Transfer of American money to China
4. Withdrawing of support for South Korea
5. Isolation of Japan
6. invasion timetable for Taiwan
There fixed it-
Thank the Clintons.
...Only problem with that is, half an hour later Obama will want to surrender again...
Not a problem. He’s only giving them California.
You have predicted this for a very long time. Might not be parity, but the Chinese continue to grow, while 0bama fiddles.
5.56mm
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.