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The last 2 CNN polls, have results that indicate 40% of the respondents had "never heard of" Kasich, Walker, Carson or Fiorina.

The last Bloomberg Iowa poll, had 40% of respondents had never attended an Iowa Causus.

I'm sure Trump is most popular, whether or not the poll findings transmute into primary results, -- I don't think so.

1 posted on 09/20/2015 8:03:17 PM PDT by VinL
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To: VinL

This reminds me of what had been called the “Bradley effect”, when black candidate Tom Bradley was running for governor of California. Polls showed him winning, but on election day, he lost the election. Pundits at the time attributed this to people being afraid to tell pollsters that they weren’t voting for Bradley, afraid of being perceived as racist.

The same effect has been noted in recent years, when states were still permitted to vote on defining marriage. There too, the results on election day to affirm traditional marriage were far in excess of the percentages of the vote predicted by pollsters. Here too, the punditry said that people were intimidated to say they were voting for traditional marriage, when the politically correct view was that we should allow homosexual marriage.


2 posted on 09/20/2015 8:08:41 PM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: VinL

The real question that would need to be asked is “does the 40% who use landlines still compriae a reasonable cross section of society. If it does then that’s probably enough people from which to get a sample. If not....they better find some new method. Or they can resort to just making up the numbers out of whole cloth the way the government does with number of immigrants, unemployment etc....


3 posted on 09/20/2015 8:10:09 PM PDT by Personal Responsibility (Trump/Cruz 2016)
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To: VinL
...the wariness of conservative voters to tell pollsters how they intend to vote.

Knowing how thuggy our government is toward conservatives (sticking the IRS on us etc) is it any wonder we don't want to give our political feelings to strangers?

4 posted on 09/20/2015 8:12:26 PM PDT by GOPJ (Immigration, World Poverty and Gumballs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPjzfGChGlE)
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To: VinL

Take the polls with a grain of salt... they’re as reliable as an Ouija board forecast.


6 posted on 09/20/2015 8:17:34 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: VinL
Pollsters will have to move away from sampling and utilize major social media sites like Facebook for Crowdsourcing to compile data. The problem with that is that instead of 900 Respondents’ data to analyze in order to provide an accurate poll, they will have to compile millions of cases on Facebook and that data will be very suspect.
9 posted on 09/20/2015 8:30:14 PM PDT by Timpanagos1
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To: VinL
My suspicion is that polls can be rigged to obtain results , which then can be used to manipulate public opinion, or discourage people i.e. Polls show Ted Cruz in 4th, 5th, or worse place, yet- He raises the most money from small donors, consistently has SRO crowds show up to see him, and has the largest amount of On-line activity.

I don't believe the polls. They're just another tool the GOPe uses to attack Cruz.

15 posted on 09/21/2015 12:26:29 PM PDT by Pajamajan ( Pray for our nation. Thank the Lord for everything you have. Don't wait. Do it today.)
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