You also have to take inflation into account. Forward contracts tend to have an assumption of future growth built in.
The long-only ETF’s have definitely had an effect in the past but it also is too easy to use an ETF to go short. If there is one thing I do wish regulators in commodities would focus on it would be the 2x and 3x leveraged contracts. They definitely have too much impact in the short term.
7~10% per month is hardly inflation betting
Whoops, make the 0.7~1.0%
Sorry, not quite the movement I suggested