So, I shouldn’t move my family to our mountain redoubt after all? But I was so thoroughly assured yesterday that this was the BIG ONE.
Recession Watch - Durable Goods Growth Slows In July, Core Capex Orders Decline 6 Straight Months
Durable Goods Orders rose a better than expected 2.0% in July (but that is notably slower than the 4.1% revised growth in June) mostly driven by another surge in aircraft orders which however was nowhere near last year's bumper Boeing-driven surge, resulting in a 20% drop Y/Y in the headline data. A more realistic assessment came from the durables ex-transports series, which rose just 0.6%, better than the 0.3% expected, and down 2.5% from a year ago. This is the 6th consecutive drop in the annual data.
Non-defense Capital Goods growth remains stagnant as core capex orders have also now been in deceline 6 straight months year-over-year.