Posted on 08/22/2015 10:35:30 AM PDT by bray
Matthew 15:14 Let them alone: they be blind leaders of the blind. And if the blind lead the blind, both shall fall into the ditch.
The polls are the story even though they are all useless. Since I said Trump and Cruz would be the leaders, during Trumps first obituary over Mexicans; when all the pundiots were claiming the frontrunners were Bush, Walker and Rubio we should look at why they were so utterly wrong.
The primary reason they were so far off is that their poll models are as bad as Global Warming models. When you use phones as the primary source of data you have to look at the accuracy of your data. With fewer and fewer homes having home phones you have already eliminated a huge swath of your population that you used to have.
The larger problem is with cell phones if you can find them on your call sheets, they all have caller ID and when they see an 800 number or a number they do not recognize they send it to voice mail purgatory. Now you have eliminated over half and most likely three quarters of the people you are trying to predict. So have valid is your sample?
What that leaves you are the bored or liars looking to skew a poll. These are the least likely to give you an honest answer and represents all of these so called polls. To say these polls are within a factor of less than ten percent is a pipe dream and a misrepresentation bordering on fraud.
This is why these same polls and poll takers have been off by more than 10-15% in the latest elections since phones do not vote, people do. There is no way you can predict the GOTV factor of any politician or the emotion built within a population just as we witnessed from the Bibi win, when the worldwide media was declaring him dead.
The most accurate way to judge the polls is to weigh them on how these biased samples are in relation to the general population. If you assume most of the poll companies are a branch of the DNC then you have to factor in a heavy DNC weighting. In addition you have to assume the most likely liar on the phone is also a Dem trying to skew a poll then you weigh the groupthink bias.
Groupthink bias is which candidate the media is promoting and which are they vilifying. People are intimidated to say they like a candidate who is a villain versus which one is sainted in the media. These factors will skew the poll towards the Dem or in this case towards Bush, Rubio, Carson and Carly and away from Trump, Cruz and Walker. These are the ones the media do not like and want to take down. They do not really like Carly, but because she is a girl they give her a pass on the vilification unless she is the nominee or VP.
So how does this all work when predictions such as Trump and Cruz. First you have to realize there is no way of actually knowing with any accuracy where they are in reality. The numbers the media are showing are simply people who still have landlines or had their home phone transferred to their cell. In addition to this small group it only represents those who will answer the phone even though they most likely know it is a pollster and will take the time to answer all of their questions. You have to look at polls are simply trends and not true numbers.
Most of Trump and Cruz’ voters do not match those criteria. Theirs are more educated and do not have the time or patience to answer a pollster. Most of their voters will not answer the phones and those who do are willing to speak in the face of the media. What this means is that Trump and Cruz voters are likely understated and the others are most likely overstated as a trend.
If my theory is righ The Donald is going to win this election and his real numbers are already likely approaching fifty percent. He has far from peaked as opposed to what the Punditocracy says in that most people thought of him as a Billionaire with a reality show. Now that he is leading they are taking a second look at him as an actual presidential candidate and giving him a serious look.
The second groups of voters are the largest portion of the electorate and are now beginning to decide who they would like as their president. These are the ones who take the longest time to decide and are the ones who are the followers and procrastinators. This as a group is heavily female and is the most influenced by those who have the most leadership qualities they can follow. He will do pretty well with that group although his testosterone will turn many off since this society has been so feminized and he is so mean.
Ted Cruz is the better of the two candidates from a Conservative standpoint, but does not have the charisma factor or the unlimited funding and name recognition Trump has. They as a team could win this election going away and we will likely see this. Trump will be the spokesman while Cruz will build the network for getting out the vote.
Trump is most likely only capable of being President for one term and then can turn the reigns over to Cruz. They as a team have the Conservative message and the ability to articulate it to the average voter who is frustrated with the overbearing Marxism in this country. Just like European countries, we are tired of Political Correctness stifling freedom in the guise of civil rights. Americans are tired of being ashamed of America and Trump is showing that.
Pollsters and other charlatans paid to predict elections have no clue what they are saying. They only have to agree with the rest of their echo chamber and when they are proved wrong they simply have to point to their colleagues’ error to be forgiven and keep their jobs. To go against the herd is to put yourself on a limb and if you are wrong the herd will push you out. This is why they keep these phony polls and pay outrageous sums for their corrupt system.
No matter if this theory is right, we are having one of the most interesting elections in the histoir of this country. The dirty little secret is Trump is a genius at self promotion which is actually what campaigning is all about. If this theory is correct and you can actually read between the lines of polls then he will be the candidate and we could have one of the most entertaining elections of our lifetimes. It would be delicious to watch the GOP and the Bush clan "unite" behind Trump. Let the games begin.
Pray America is waking
Enough braying!
What has caused you to assume we are all ignorant?
Bray-I think America is waking up. Hispanics/Blacks/Whites etc. are listening to what Trump has to say.
Much as I like some of things Trump has said, I cannot understand this enthusiasm for him.
Trump has no record to prove that this is fact his policy. He was a Democrat until 2008.
Cruz, on the other hand, does have a record and it is consistent. I’d choose him over a billionaire carnival barker any day.
“The dirty little secret is Trump is a genius at self promotion which is actually what campaigning is all about.”
As good as Cruz is, this is the bit that I’m not sure he’s got just yet.
I think he was addressing that just to you.
No More Robo Calls has to be reducing the reliability of any pollsters as well as Cell phones.
Many of our younger relatives and friends our age, no longer have land lines. They just have cell phones!
When I wrote that line I was thinking of humblegunner.
I knew it!
That is where this election is going to be won. Do not be surprised if you begin seeing blacks and Hispanics begin changing their registration.
So would I. But that may not happen. Trump is pulling in the half of the electorate that has never voted. Watchers of the Apprentice see a man they really adore. They like his brash style. They are going to vote.
Add in democrats who cannot stand the invasion of illegal and Trump could win with a Reaganesque landslide.
Trump has killed amnesty. He is busy taking out Jeb! He is dismantling PC thought police. And the media is not capable of taking him out.
That is enough for me to support him.
What I notice is that Trump, under attack for dissing hispanics, simply states from the podium that “Mexicans love me”... and his poll numbers rise among hispanics.
And I notice that my relatives who are not engaged politically, don’t traditionally pay too much attention to deep philosophical matters outside of scripture, whose eyes glaze over when I talk about Cruz, are on fire for Trump. He is their guy, they will walk over glass to vote for him.
Which leads me to think that a significant number of Democrats will vote for him. You notice that the supposed front-runner for the Dems arouses no enthusiasm she doesn’t pay for, can’t even get arrested, can’t fill a hall bigger than a corner booth at Denny’s. They won’t admit it but they don’t want her. A significant number of these people are going to cross over and vote for Trump. Why? Because he brags about what he is going to do for America, and they believe him.
I am starting to believe him too.
LOLOLOLOLOL
Deez Nutz polled 9% on a major poll in NC this week. Ahead of 4 of the other Republican Pres candidates.
Yup, polling is a real science these days.
Well, I have to admit, I like Deez Nutz positions.
I especially like Deez Nutz on women.... you know, equal pay, stuff like that.
Polls are propaganda used for DRIVING results, not measuring them.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.