Posted on 08/06/2015 12:01:45 PM PDT by Jack Black
Very difficult concept for many...
Not a guarantee, but certainly a good indicator. Which is why most stock analysts chart past performance, and why bookies use to to set odds on sporting events.
Go over to Paddy Power and note who is favored to win the NFL Championship next year: the Seattle Seahawks, followed by Green Bay. Seattle won twice in a row, best chance to do so again.
And in the AFC: no surprise, the New England Patriots.
Polls matter, past results ARE indicative of what is likely, but not 100% predictive. To some extent Trump is a black swan event. The closest example might be Perot, but he went third party from the start, so it's hard to drawn parallels.
Can the Vikings (7-9) win the NFC title in 2015/16 season? It's possible. Paddy Power give them 22:1 odds. Which is slightly better odds than Ted Cruz is given by them of winning the Presidency (25:1). Those odds acknowledge that it's possible, just quite unlikely.
I think looking at historic data from 2011 reinforces that view.
Sorry, small correction: Cruz is 25:1 to win the nomination. He’s 40:1 to win the Presidency.
No, he ran for President in the 2008 election, not the 2012 one.
He was ahead in the polls in 2008, though, so your point is an excellent one.
Here is their summary of the race from this article in Oct. of 2007.
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has held a statistically significant lead in every Gallup national preference poll since February, averaging a 12-point lead over former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson the past three months. Arizona Sen. John McCain is third, but usually just a few points behind Thompson.Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has not gained much traction in the national polls. In the most recent Gallup Poll, just 10% of Republicans chose him for the Republican presidential nomination.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has seen his support pick up a little in the past few months, but he remains in single digits. Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback’s departure from the race -- announced this past weekend -- will almost certainly have little direct effect, as he consistently polled at only 1% or 2% of the vote.
Single digit guys faded. Huckabee got to 7% or whatever and stayed there. Sound familiar?
In the end: one of the top three, a fellow who had consistently been in double digits, took the nomination, but not the top guy from Oct of 07.
This pattern would suggest that Bush or Walker are in a pretty good position.
Kinda like NASCAR racing, drafting the leader on the last lap is a proven winning position.
It's also why I felt very comfortable making this prediction on another thread:
I think we can safely say the following people are not going to be President:
CLUB "NO MOMENTUM" Santorum Fiorina Jindal Graham
CLUB "MISTAKES WERE MADE" Christie Perry
CLUB "HIGH WATER MARK" Huckabee Carson Paul
Which leaves the three Tier 1 leaders Trump, Walker and Bush as the most likely and ...
CLUB "MISSION POSSIBLE" Cruz Rubio Kasich I think the VP slot could go to some of people in the "No Momentum" and "Possible" clubs.
Great insight. Thanks!
good points.
There are a lot of people here who don’t even understand sarcasm, so it may be a reading comprehension issue....:-)
Zoomed?
Last I heard, he is still at the kiddie table.
Did someone at the big table trip and fall and lose their place?
Save a pretzel for the gas jets!
A waste of bandwidth.
This is 2015 and Rick Perry blew his opportunity back in November of 2011.
Last I heard, he is still at the kiddie table.
Did someone at the big table trip and fall and lose their place?
Ooops! Look again at the headline, or read the date on the posting! This is the WAYBACK Machine in use. Comment 1 explains all...
Take off the plastic chest and you still have a wimp.
Takes Big Balls for you to called anybody a wimp..
Cruz is a wimp?.. LoL...
What have YOU done lately Louie?.. anything?..
Anything meaningful?.. Anything positive?..
Anything at all?.. Perhaps.. a gay parade?..
A flag waver?... protest at an abortion mill perhaps?..
Maybe defending a child molester?.. everyone needs a defense some say..
Louie calling someone a WIMP!... NOW thats funny..
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