Exit polling notoriously inaccurate. Recall all the experts had Romney winning.
But Akin did in fact, blow it. He refused a "coaching session" offered him by Roy Blunt and other Republican leaders. Jaco trapped him.
Mother McCaskill had the Black, Gay, Geezer, Girl, union, urban voters as well as ton$ of Hollywood $$ via her connection to Michael J. Fox.
I was an active fighter in the fight for CCW in Missouri, years ago. 97% of the land mass of Missouri voted FOR. KC/St.L voted NO. And we lost. Much as NYC controls NY State, KC/St.L controls MO. However, we have made significant inroads in the last couple of years. Republicans have Super Majorities in both Houses. They can and should override Nixon' veto next month. But will they? That is the Q.
Look for unions to begin the push during Labor Day parades. Then protests in Jeff City. Hopefully, non-violent. And not as destructive as were the protests in Madison.
I postulated a wide range on the possible margin of victory. The high end, however unlikely, but not impossible, could’ve seen McCaskill get 40% of the vote (and in August, that was where she was at), which is what Akin ended up with (39%). Ultimately, she got 54.8%, but a lot of angry Republicans went with the Libertarian, who got 6%, so the combined vote was about a 9.6% victory for McCaskill. Had Akin not imploded, there was no reason he couldn’t have won by the same margin that Roy Blunt did over Robin Carnahan (who was more popular than McCaskill and fresh off a gargantuan reelection victory), which was about 14-15%.
I’ll admit I stood by Akin AFTER his comments, thinking he could still manage a save (albeit with a diminished victory), but that if polling indicated he went below McCaskill, he needed to step aside (since Brunner narrowly took 2nd in the primary ahead of Steelman, it would’ve fallen to him, though I’d have preferred Steelman).
Here in neighboring TN, I know what it’s like to have two urban areas attempting to dictate to the rest of the state (I’m in one of them, Nashville). Like MO, we have supermajority GOP legislature (only 5 Dems in the Senate, 3 from Memphis and 2 from Nashville). Unlike MO, the Governor’s veto power is weak, since a simple majority can override it (the Gov is a RINO).