The polling is almost always wrong. At this stage of American politics, I think polling has become little more than a mix of a waste of time and political warfare. Even if it were valid (it isn’t) it often changes a WEEK before an election. So what do you think it will do more than a YEAR before the election. EVERYONE is still in the running.
We’re also talking about these “leads” with the candidate being in the teens percentage wise. Meaningless, as even the tiniest shift could move even the bottom tier into the top tier with those kinds of numbers.