1.) Ron Johnson (R-WI) <-—Johnson has gone flaky during his tenure, but Feingold was never popular during his 3 terms and should’ve lost after his first. If Feingold wins it back, he’ll likely only hold it for a single term as he’ll face a slew of Republicans in 2022. I rate this as 50/50.
2.) Vacant (D-NV) <-—Almost a guaranteed GOP pick-up (so long as the nominee isn’t Sharron Angle)
3.) Mark Kirk (R-IL) <-—Kirk was the designated Combiner winner for 2010. The question is if he will be in 2016. I think they’d prefer to keep 1 of each party to maintain power. I couldn’t care less if he’s reelected.
4.) Vacant (R-FL) <-—Guaranteed GOP retention
5.) Patrick Toomey (R-PA) <-—Expected rematch against Fleastack or whatever his name is. Toomey has been a disappointment in the Senate. He leads in the polls against his former opponent.
6.) Rob Portman (R-OH) <-—Ex-Gov. Strickland is running here, but fares poorly against Portman. I wish someone else other than pro-gay RINO Portman was running.
7.) Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) <-—No declared opponent yet. Dems are waiting on Gov. Hassan to have a go, but I expect Ayotte will win again, despite a subpar record.
8.) Michael Bennet (D-CO) <-—Bennet may have been the luckiest Democrat Senator (never elected) in the 2010 cycle drawing a subpar opponent in Ken Buck. The big question remains which Republican will run now that Rep. Mike Coffman took a pass. I still put this in lean GOP.
9.) Richard Burr (R-NC) <-—Dems don’t have a substantial candidate here. Some want ex-Sen. Kay Hagan to run, but she knows she isn’t likely to win.
10.) John McCain (R-AZ) <-—The battle here will be in the primary. Defeating McCain is paramount, but with a younger candidate like State Sen. Kelli Ward, not Rep. Matt Salmon who needlessly lost a statewide race for Governor.
Hassan is running in NH. The GOP is already running adds against here. Presidential year....in NH that means Ayotte is done.
The keystone to breaking the Senate to a more conservative view is taking out McCain.
I keep hoping he comes to his senses and retires.
Weird that Burr is in that list. He flattened his Dem opponent in 2010 for re-election and hasn’t picked up any controversy (that I know of) since. And Hagan? She couldn’t even beat the supposedly radioactive state house speaker Thom Tillis. I don’t even think NC is all that likely to go Dem in the presidential race unless we nominate a disastrous candidate, so I don’t see coattails helping them, either.
I’m from Ohio. Portman will not be moved out. I doubt he’ll even be primaried.
I agree with you completely.
I am not so sure Florida is a guaranteed win, but with Hillary on top, it might happen.
Kirk loses I think.
1.) Ron Johnson (R-WI)- I’d rate this around 50/50. I thought a Scott Walker nomination would help Johnson, but Walker’s local popularity has taken a hit.
2.) Vacant (D-NV)- I expect Congressman Joe Heck to run, rate him the marginal favorite but no shoo in.
3.) Mark Kirk (R-IL)- Mark Kirk is as uninspiring as a Republican can be, but take not of how the state votes, and of how ‘Rat candidate Tammy Duckworth votes.
4.) Vacant (R-FL)- This race has been slow to form on the Republican side. The Democrat front-runner is Patrick Murphy, whose record is similar to Bill Nelson, the state’s senior Senator who keeps getting reelected.
5.) Patrick Toomey (R-PA)- Toomey nearly lost in spite of having a lot going for him. He faces a tough reelection, but it’s unclear who the Democrat will be. Joe Sestak is running again, but has inter-party opposition.
6.) Rob Portman (R-OH)- Portman’s known for being caught between his responsibilities as a father and his responsibilities as a public servant. Conservatives are very irked, so he’ll face a primary of some kind. I think he’ll be back for a second term due partly from cheers from the MSM.
7.) Kelly Ayotte (R-NH)- against anyone but Maggie Hassan, she’s in. Against Hassan, it could go either way. Remember, in 2010, she won a landslide in a race rated a tossup.
8.) Michael Bennet (D-CO)- Scott Tipton is the man to watch, Republicans are hoping for a surprise candidacy like Cory Gardner’s. It could happen.
9.) Richard Burr (R-NC)- He’s a mediocre Senator. Thankfully, Democrats have a thin bench. But remember, Kay Hagan ran a good campaign in 2014 and very nearly won.
10.) John McCain (R-AZ)- It’s easy to dislike McCain. If there were no serious Democrat running, I’d say primary him. Now I’m not so sure. I don’t think Kelly Ward is ready for prime time.
Honorable mentions:
Indiana (vacant R)- I rooting for Marlin Stutzman, but he faces a primary challenge. Baron Hill cannot be counted out entirely.
California (vacant D) Republicans could win if everything broke their way. So far, nothing has. The closest thing to a strong candidate is state Assemblyman Rocky Chavez from the northern San Diego area. Right now, I expect state AG Kalema Harris to be the next Senator.