Charles Krauthammer: The GOP Candidate Racing Form No. 2

Investor's Business Daily's On The Right ^ | June 11, 2015 | Dr. Charles Krauthammer, Columnist, Democrat & News Analyst

[2ndDivisionVet]

The Republican nominating race is a mess: a strong field, but with 10 declared candidates and a half-dozen more to come, we need a bouncer to keep order.

I've given myself the job. Rope lines separate the four categories.

(A) Top tier:

1. Jeb Bush. Solid, no sizzle. Sizzle may be in less demand than eight years ago, but his inability to separate from the pack, his recent campaign shakeup and his four-day stumble over Megyn Kelly's "knowing what we know now" Iraq question have given even his supporters pause. Nonetheless, a bulging war chest, a fine gubernatorial record and a wide knowledge of domestic issues guarantee top-tier staying power.

Chances: 25%.

2. Scott Walker. Maintains a significant lead in Iowa and it's more than just a Wisconsinite's favorite-son advantage. He's got a solid governing record, has raised respectable money and has gone almost errorless for more than a month. One caveat: His major wobble on immigration threatens his straight-shooter persona.

Chances: 25%.

3. Marco Rubio. Good launch, steady follow-up. With his fluency in foreign affairs, has benefited the most from President Obama's imploding foreign policy. Polls well, but with seven or so within the margin of error, the important question is less "Who do you support?" than "Who could you support?" (measuring general acceptability). Rubio leads all with 74%. The New York Times' comical attempts to nail him on driving (four citations in 18 years — "Arrest that man!") and financial profligacy (a small family fishing boat characterized as a "luxury speedboat") only confirm how much the Democrats fear his prospects.

Chances: 35%.

(B) Polls well, but can't win.

4. Rand Paul. Fought a principled, if hyperbolic, fight on metadata collection and privacy rights, but his ambivalent national-security posture alienates many in the GOP base....

[2ndDivisionVet]

Comments?

[dp0622]

Bush - for amnesty. we all know it.
Rubio - the same
Paul - insane, bad foreign policy, met with al Sharpton
walker - opinions evolve a little too often, he’s in a mess with that job creation scandal, and he’s for the TPP too so why would I vote for him over Cruz?

[JMS]

My view is Kraut is full of it with this article. Jeb is Hillary in 2008 - hardly inevitable and totally uninspiring and highly stupid with his dumb stance on immigration. Also having Ben Carson as a top tier candidate is idiotic - the guy seems smart and might be a good Surgeon General but is definitely not ready for prime time. Having Cruz as second tier makes no sense, even if he says he might jump ahead - he has strong Tea Party and Conservative support compared to the moderates. A very beltway perspective.

[z taxman]

Bushes and Rubios and Walkers, oh my. Seriously though I will not vote for Jeb or Rubio... Walker, walking on a tight tight rope.

BTW, Charles Krauthammer ought to be expelled from the party.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Krauthammer is, and always has been, a registered Democrat. He worked for President Jimmy Carter and was a speechwriter for Vice President Walter "Fritz" Mondale. He only seems conservative, relatively speaking, because the mainstream Democrats are to the left of Che Guevara and Ho Chi Minh. And you're not thinking of backing Scott Walker, you're a blimp-riding, dope-smoking, sign-carrying Rand Paul backer or I'm a Sports Illustrated swimsuit model.

[z taxman]

Which model are you? Kate Upton I hope? Me, I’m straight edge.

[hosepipe]

Kraut Pounder wouldn’t know a conservative if he tripped over one..

[Dave W]

The problem isn’t what you think or how you intend to vote. It’s how others think and intend to vote and right now Cruz isn’t leading that race, but it’s early and anything can happen.

[sten]

basically, 0bama and the left are SOOOOOOO bad... ANYONE would do a better job and be FAR more qualified to boot

[dp0622]

I keep forgetting how early it is. but I also know that time does fly. I guess we shall see what happens.

[Dave W]

No, your post doesn't work with me. I know there are lots of uninformed freepers, but Dr. Krauthammer is so well known you don't need to educate us.

Yes, I know he worked for Carter and wrote speeches for Mondale. Big deal. You forgot to mention he is pro abortion, too.

His influence is vast and wide because he is honest. He is not a partisan hack who commentates and shills for whomever. He is thoughtful and writes and commentates as he sees the world, or the horse race, or whatever is happening at the moment.

He is most brilliant in discussing foreign policy and any president would be better with the Doc as an adviser.

You can try to embarrass him, I suppose, but why. He has never claimed to be a conservative, but he doesn't need to be. His strength is analyzing and he is perfectly balanced. He shills for no one and notes the bumps and bruises in all candidates. He annoys some because he won't pretend Cruz is #1.

Walker or Cruz would be a better president if the Doc was an informal adviser.

[NTHockey]

Since my opinions are as valid as the good doctor’s’ here’s my prediction: SWMNBN vs Jeb. They will agree on all policy issues and the campaign will devolve into “I’m better than the other candidate. Trust me”.

And the election will be won by the candidate with the larger family. Everybody else will stay home.

[RginTN]

C. Krauthammer voted for Mondale in 1980 and J Carter before that...why should his opinion be taken seriously with that history???????

[Dave W]

You must not have read the Kraut's column well. His column is based on where the candidates are today, not where he thinks they will end up. If you read carefully, he states Jeb has no sizzle. He is a writer and I guess he could have written that Jeb is boring, but that would have been boring, so he wrote that Jeb has no sizzle. Kraut agrees with you.

The polls have Carson in the top tier, so Kraut acknowledges his popularity and nods to the respect that people have for Ben Carson. Well, did you read that Kraut also stated that Carson has no chance? Kraut agrees with you.

I know you love Cruz and you feel personally aggrieved if anyone suggests anything other than a complete slapdown by Cruz to all the other candidates. But that is what makes Kraut valuable. He won't shill for your candidate and pretend reality is different just because you want it to be. Kraut wouldn't have much integrity if he did that, would he? He wouldn't be anything better than a mouthpiece on MSNBC if he did that.

So my question to you is, do you think it is possible to read or listen to anything by anyone that doesn't state Cruz is going to win without getting offended and taking it personally?

The truth is Cruz is second tier at the moment, which surprises me. He is down in the pack in the Iowa polls with Walker leading all of them and I'm surprised how well Rubio is catching on, which doesn't make me happy, but I acknowledge reality and people are excited about him.

As for Cruz, I'm surprised he is not stronger in the polls, but it is early. I like Cruz a lot and my respect for him went sky high when he declared his candidacy at Liberty - a gutsy thing to do that no other candidate would even consider doing. Kraut said he is on the cusp and that makes sense. But I will tell you, the people I know tend to think Cruz comes across as arrogant and frankly, he doesn't come across as warm as does Walker and Rubio. People like that warm and fuzzy thing. You have to acknowledge people are shallow and they vote shallow. The better looking one or the one with the best smile. It's sickening, but people do that.

Cruz would be an incredible leader, so we will see.

[nathanbedford]

Two very good post on this thread which exemplify what you exhort, a dispassionate analysis of the evidence.

I would add that Krauthammer is instinctively opposed to Cruz as someone who is so obviously in opposition to the Washington establishment. Krauthammer has opposed every one of Cruz's attempts to actually fulfill McConnell's campaign promises. I make no comment whether this alleged antipathy affects his assessment of Cruz's chances.

The warm and fuzzy appeal of some candidates should be considered from a sexist perspective which I have been accused of holding. It is female voters who have been accused with some evidence in the polling data of reacting to touchy-feely candidates. That is why I welcome Carly Fiorina in the race as one who can skewer Hillary from the distaff side without tainting the entire Republican field in the eyes of women. By the way, anyone with a teenage daughter knows they have been told so to react in the women's magazines.

Finally, I am distressed by the vote of Cruz and the statement of Walker in support of fast-track which might tend to push the candidacy of Donald Trump as an outspoken protectionist. I share many of Donald Trump's views on this subject even as I deplore him as a person and fear that his participation will be wholly negative. Trump will engage by demeaning the other candidates and he will get press. His participation will advance Trump for a season until his bubble bursts but he will leave the stage and those who survive him the worse for his having been upon it.

Marco Rubio was terribly disappointing especially when one considers the might have beens. Marco Rubio is probably the best performer on the stump, a great personal story to tell and he tells it movingly. Unscripted, he is almost flawless on his feet, attractive, and is possessed of that charisma that so appeals to women. His sleeping with the enemy on the issue of immigration, however, has placed him beyond the range of acceptable primary candidates. If he were to be nominated I would face an agonizing choice about whether to support him in the general election or go Galt.

Ted Cruz is probably the most intelligent and certainly among the most articulate of the Republican candidates and I believe that he will move closer and closer to first place as he becomes more exposed to the Republican primary electorate in places like Iowa. Walker is also likable and has a wonderful record but may lack the appearance of gravitas so necessary for Republican presidential candidate. He is more gaffe prone than Cruz or Rubio but nevertheless well within the range of capability to withstand the media attacks. He has a winning likable demeanor.

Governor Perry will have to earn his rehabilitation and there is no point speculating on his chances until we see how the electorate reacts. I suspect he will not shine in competition with the bright lights on the debate stage generated by Cruz and Rubio.

Jeb Bush is in a serious dilemma, he is the voice of moderation and accommodation in the field but he will be hammered unceasingly by talk radio and other conservative media to the point where he must use his money to fight back, Romney style, and demean the other Republican candidates or continue to sink under the remorseless barrage waged by conservatives. If he does nothing he will see the nomination slip away, if he spends his money to demean the others, he will lose his good guy image and then there will be nothing there.

On the whole I agree with you, Dr. Krauthammer is generally on target in his handicapping.

[SoFloFreeper]

I think Bush is in Kraut’s top tier only because of money.

I would put Bush’s chances at 15%.

Same as Cruz—Cruz ought to be higher than 5%.

I agree about Carson and Paul.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Little secret: Ted Cruz is #2 in fundraising behind Bush. If Jeb wasn't related to Dubya and Poppy he'd be about where Chris Christy or John Kasich is now, assuming he'd have ever had the wherewithal to make it to the Florida governorship on his own, which is a huge assumption.

[DaveA37]

There has already been an overload of polls and there will more yet to come before the dust settles, CK’s selections are no different, they are HIS opinions. We all know that opinions are like bung holes, everyone has one. There may be a sleeper candidate out there that none of us has ever considered as a “possible”, it happened with odumbo if you recall.

[SoFloFreeper]

I know Cruz has a lot of money...a wee bit of it came from us....I just wonder why he hasn’t gained more traction.

I know he is campaigning hard.

[SMARTY]

You’re right.

When I listen to these guys who rank candidates, I always feel like none of them knows the price of a cup of coffee in down town Podunk.

None of these guys is IN TOUCH with what average Americans think of the candidates.

Certainly most Conservatives regard Bush as a wealthy, traitorous, RINO slob.... just cashing in on his name.

I wonder if any of the pollsters can actually determine the numbers of Conservative voters in America... I mean as opposed to ‘Republicans’.

They act like Conservatives do not exist and do not effect the outcome of elections.