Cruz's new strategy is a recipe for disaster

The Iowa Republican ^ | June 11 2015 | Craig Robinson

[iowamark]

The parallels between sports and politics are endless.

In sports, there is the dreaded vote of confidence given to coaches from athletic directors, general managers, or team ownership. The public vote of confidence is dreaded because most of the time it is a precursor to the coach getting fired.

In politics, a similar thing happens when a presidential campaign discloses to the media that states that were once central to a campaign strategy to win the nomination suddenly are not. Publically tying to lower their expectations in an early state is a clear sign of a campaign in trouble or one with serious problems.

The later happened on Wednesday, when a campaign official with Texas Senator Ted Cruz told Politico:

“Our strategy is taking it to the convention, which is why you’ve seen us announcing chairmen in California and New Jersey, as well as Iowa and New Hampshire,” said Mark Campbell, Cruz’s political director. “There are 2,470 [delegates] total, and you need 1,236 of them to win. None of these can be accumulated at any one time, which is why it’s a marathon more than a sprint. So we are methodically going state by state, focusing on grass roots and party activists.”

Campbell would add, “Obviously Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada are important, but then there are many large states that will be distributing their delegates starting March 1.”

Regardless of how you read the Politico piece on Cruz that was published on Wednesday, the Cruz campaign’s desire to manage its expectations in Iowa and New Hampshire is result of recent polls showing Cruz in sixth place in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

Cruz’s staff may not have said it in these exact words, but on Wednesday, they essentially announced to the world that Cruz is not capable of winning the Republican nomination outright, so instead, they are now going to work towards a goal of preventing anyone one else from accumulating enough delegates to win the nomination. In many ways this is reminiscent of the strategy Ron Paul adopted in 2012, with one major difference – Paul actually tried to win Iowa and New Hampshire.

Why the campaign chose to publically discuss its weakness in a state like Iowa, which should be an area of strength for Cruz, is difficult to understand. Instead of viewing their current place in the Iowa polls as their floor on which they need to build, they seem to be viewing it as an indication that Iowa just isn’t suitable for them, which is an incorrect read of where things currently stand in Iowa.

When Cruz announced his candidacy in April, I noted how Cruz is a natural fit for the Republican caucuses in Iowa, and even though his poll numbers are not where his campaign wants them to be, I still believe that Cruz is a natural fit in Iowa. Cruz and his team shouldn’t be surprised at where they currently stand in the polls because they really have not done the things necessary to build support in the state. Since the first of the year, Cruz has been in Iowa just six days. Sure, that’s only one less day in the state than Scott Walker, but besides his announcement tour, Cruz has only attended multi-candidate events. Cruz’s father spent some time campaigning in Iowa last week, but Cruz himself hasn’t been in Iowa since April 25^th.

The last two times that Cruz came to Iowa, he basically came in to attend a specific multi-candidate event and didn’t hold any of his own campaign events. It is imperative for candidates to build their own campaign events across the state, but it takes staff and a commitment from the candidate to spend the time travelling the state. Cruz is scheduled to be in the state next week, and his campaign does have three town hall events scheduled.

Cruz’s Iowa campaign director is Bryan English, who’s a great guy. But you could assemble the best staff in the state, and it wouldn’t matter unless the candidate is willing to actually campaign across the state. English also doesn’t have previous caucus campaign experience, and while that not a prerequisite to working on a campaign, Cruz needs experienced hands to guide him through the caucus process.

I never thought I would write this, but Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush have a lot in common when it comes to Iowa. They didn’t hire all the right people, and they don’t seem interested in putting in the work that is required to be successful in Iowa.

Iowa was never going to be easy for Cruz because the 2016 field of candidates is full of strong social conservative candidates, including two who have won the caucuses before. When Cruz launched his campaign in April, he crowed about all the money he was able to raise. It was purposeful, because he was essentially saying that he was the conservative who could win the nomination. It was a knock against Huckabee, Santorum, and Jindal.

Money is important in politics, but if there is one contest where hard work and dedication can make up for money it’s the Iowa caucuses. It’s shocking that Cruz and his team misread what it would take to actually win here. Cruz is a natural fit in Iowa because it was assumed that he would be a candidate who would appeal to grassroots conservatives, but they are not going to back a candidate who’s not here.

The Cruz campaign’s new strategy, to not focus on early primary states, is perplexing and doesn’t take into account the roll that momentum plays in politics. To be relevant beyond Iowa, Cruz needs to be the top conservative on caucus night. That means he has to beat Huckabee, Santorum, Jindal, and Perry. In many respect I’ve always viewed Iowa as a must win state for Cruz, and his campaign’s decision to not focus on winning Iowa just makes it more unlikely that he will win Iowa or even have a shot at the nomination.

It seems like the only thing the Cruz campaign is good at these days is over-thinking things. His campaign’s new strategy is nothing more than a recipe for disaster.

[2ndDivisionVet]

"When Cruz announced his candidacy in April..."

Senator Cruz announced his candidacy on March 23rd, at Liberty University. If Craig can't even get that right, how accurate is the rest of the article? Just sayin'?

[Patton@Bastogne]

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[Dr. Sivana]

The writer of the article seems to like pretending he is a kremlinologist.

When there are more than a dozen candidates in the race, in a state like Iowa, trying to force a win (a la Bachmann or Santorum) is a long shot's strategy. Top three is considered good enough. Clinton was able to brush off Harkin's win as he was from Iowa. Many figured Dole had a head start being from a nearby farm state, in his win. Wisconsin isn't quite Iowa in terms of character, but Walker being nearby gives him a bit of an advantage.

Anyway, like in pro football, every team is different. First, individual states change their rules between elections, the calendar gets changed, the Democratic opposition is different (if known), election finance laws change, changing communications technology, the country's circumstances are different (economic issues vs. war issues vs. social issues) and the other candidates are different. In 1980, where you had about eight canidates, only Phil Crane and Ronald Reagan would be in the same neighborhood as Cruz. Baker, Dole, Anderson, GHW Bush, John Connolly, etc. would be to the left, and ALL considerably more establishment.

It is way to early to write anyobe off or on right now. We all remember that McCain was left for dead in October, 2007. He hung around and got the nomination. Same with Kerry in October 2003.

These guys are engaged in wishful thinking. Few are really paying attention right now.

[cripplecreek]

Have you noticed how quickly this all started when Romney people began joining campaigns?

[Common Sense 101]

So, I’m supposed to believe that libtard DNC propogandists posing as the “media” are concerned that Ted Cruz’s campaign strategy will falter and result in failure. Uh.... exactly why in the hell would they care? Quite a bit of wishful thinking in this writing exercise. Thanks Craig, for pointing out who libtards fear the most...

[grania]

few are really paying attention

More than you realize are paying attention to anyone who votes for ObamaTrade. And supporting an increase in H1B workers. I'd be surprised if that hasn't greatly diminished Cruz with his original base.

I speak as one who gave immediately to Cruz's announcement. I was so impressed by his magnificent 21 hours. Now, I'm looking elsewhere.

[cripplecreek]

It is interesting how quickly this infighting starts when the Romney people start joining the campaigns. Honestly, if conservatives are dumb enough to continue falling for this crap election after election, we really do deserve a Bush/Clinton race.

As far as the candidates/potential candidates are concerned, I haven't looked at them all but so far Perry, Walker and Jindal have all supported TPP or equivelent treaties.

Amid Secrecy, Rick Perry Retracts Obamatrade Support: ‘I Would Rather Barack Obama Not Be Negotiating for Me’

In May a spokesman for Perry told Breitbart News that he supports the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)—one of three largely secretive trade deals that would be fast-tracked by Trade Promotion Authority (TPA). But he’s changed his position.

TPP Proponents Close to Clinton Remain Optimistic About Her Support

Scott Walker had this to say.

Well, I talked about TTIP the other day in Germany in Hanover at the industrial fair there, and I think fair and open trade is a good thing on either side of the continent for the United States, whether it’s on the Atlantic or the Pacific. Obvious the details need to be worked out and there’s a lot of details including some specific to my state that need to be worked out. But I think in the end, having a deal that’s fair and offers fair and open trade would be a good thing for the United States and for our trading partners.

Bobby Jindal talks economic development, TPP with Taiwanese President Ma Ying-Jeou

While the negotiations were discussed, Plotkin said Jindal will take a position on the agreement when final terms are agreed to: "We are optimistic and hopeful about expanded trade with this part of the world. So we are hopeful about the TPP.

For those who are OK with trashing Cruz to protect your candidate, Just remember, those Romney people on the campaign WILL eat your candidate before they're done and despite any fantasies to the contrary, you won't be able to stop it.

And finally Ted Cruz in his own words. (Starting at 52 minutes)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sznh5AjageI&feature=youtu.be

[grania]

You can't undo the damage of his vote and his support for even more H1B workers.

I really want a "USA first" candidate. Even if it's the modern-day reincarnation of PT Barnum!

I misread Cruz after his magnificent 21 hours. Now I realize he's too much of a globalist for what I'd support in a candidate.

[Vigilanteman]

The other factor is that New Hampshire and Iowa in particular are drunk with their own grossly inflated sense of self-importance.

In the last 27 years, New Hampshire has cast its electoral vote for the GOP candidate exactly twice, most recently 15 years ago, and Iowa has done so exactly once.

They've been pissant states and utterly irrelevant to the GOP's margin of victory save in the razor thin election of 2000 only and should be treated as such in the nominating process.

[bert]

amen..... they are media fodder

[Dr. Sivana]

More than you realize are paying attention to anyone who votes for ObamaTrade. And supporting an increase in H1B workers. I'd be surprised if that hasn't greatly diminished Cruz with his original base.

I liked neither. But, no candidate is perfect, and out of the entire roster, maybe Santorum is the only guy who might be against both. That dog didn't hunt last time, and it's not gonna hunt this time.

I like Cruz, but why can't any of these guys have a normal wife? (I know, some of them do, but they never seem to get the nomination.)

[lostboy61]

It’s funny how good people get lost when the big bucks start to flow in. The inner whore comes to the surface and to hell with the People. Cruz is just another ass-clown in D.C.

[grania]

Remember what did Santorum in last time? He was on his way, and then he started jabbering about the “need to compromise”. Originally, he seemed to be someone who would stand for conservative principles.

[Buckeye McFrog]

I agree, that’s an insane strategy.

If it gets to the convention the backroom RINO power brokers will just hand the prize to Jeb. I suspect they are angling for that as I don’t see him able to win enough primaries either.

[SpeakerToAnimals]

If voting could save the country it would be illegal. The results of the 2014 “victory” is all the proof I need.

[TNMOUTH]

LOL...yes, you originally gave to Cruz. Now, you are so fickle, you jump off of his ship.

So, who are you supporting now? Tell me who is better than Cruz....

[deport]

The other factor is that New Hampshire and Iowa in particular are drunk
with their own grossly inflated sense of self-importance.

************

To a degree reality is setting in for the GOP primary in that Iowa isn’t the
necessary win to become the nominee.

Witness the number of candidates this time around that won’t even show for
their exalted Iowa straw poll event. Iowa is losing it’s so called importance, imo.

[Vigilanteman]

As it should. Leftist professors and college students now outnumber farmers. It beat Illinois in being the first state in the midwest to embrace Gay Marriage. Heck, it was even one of a handful of states which Dukakis carried in his 1988 landslide loss.

Thirty years or more ago, it was a fairly good microcosm of America. Not anymore. New Hampshire is only marginally better.

[jpsb]

To some of us immigration, in particular illegal immigration is an issue of such importance that to be wrong on that makes one unacceptable. Even if Cruz was right on every other issue but wrong on immigration then Cruz is unacceptable. Newt was coasting to the nomination and then he jumped that shark on illegal immigration. After that Newt was toast. Perry after "you don't have a heart" re dreamers was toast. Romney got illegal immigration right or more right then the rest of the field and he got the nomination.

It has been alleged by reliable sources that the TPP and related bills allow massive new immigration into the USA. It is clear that our ruling elites want to flood the USA with the poor third worlders. And it appears that the ruling elide have an ally in Ted Cruz on the issue of illegal/legal immigration. I had high hope for Ted, now, not so much. I was also disappointed, very disappointed, in his support for the unconstitutional Patriot Act.