I think a good barometer of the state of the race will be in the fall after we’ve had a number of debates. The field will have solidified by then and a straw poll taken in November or December will catch my attention more than ones taken in May or June.
The first polls that will be indicative will take place early next year, when it counts.
Until then we’ll just diversify support across a wide body of also rans so someone like Jeb Bush can walk across the finish line just like Dole, Bush, McCain, and Romney did.