Posted on 05/22/2015 3:24:10 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
A few broad distinctions have defined the United States' two main parties for decades. Republicans advocate smaller government, less taxation, and less regulation. According to the Pew Research Center, their supporters tend to be whiter, older, and more likely to identify as Christian than the average American. Democrats see the potential to alleviate certain perceived social ills through regulation and legislation, funded by taxation. They rely more on young people and ethnic and religious minorities for support.
This familiar conservative-liberal political axis has been augmented in recent years by a second axis, which contrasts establishment and anti-establishment agendas. Anti-establishment groups can be on the right or left, as can their establishment opponents. This development is largely a response to the 2008 financial crisis and is an international phenomenon, particularly in Europe. So far in the United States, the most prominent anti-establishment movement has been the right-wing Tea Party.
In some ways the Tea Party is a party within the Republican party, with its own rhetoric, celebrities, media, and donors to distinguish it from the conservative establishment. On the other hand, there is no Tea Party National Convention, no official leadership and no (T) to the right of senators' names. Also, due to its loose organizational structure, the Tea Party is divided on many issues.
The Tea Party Agenda(s)
If the Tea Party shares any single agenda, it's a radical commitment to small government: a balanced federal budget, the lowest possible tax burden, and the greatest possible individual freedom, especially to bear arms. They reject "Obamacare" as government overreach, along with welfare "waste," especially for undocumented beneficiaries. Aspects of the social safety net that tend to benefit older, middle class voters, such as Social Security, receive less criticism, but aren't totally immune.
Mainstream Republicans share these fiscal conservative ideals, if less intensely. When the House Tea Party bloc shut the federal government down in 2013, some in the party leadership were none too pleased. There is a rift on the right between fiscal and military hawks, exemplified by Rand Paul implying that Dick Cheney started the Iraq war in order to pad Halliburton's (HAL) profit margins.
Paul's accusation speaks to the Tea Party's split over foreign policy, which Walter Russell Mead captured in a 2011 "Foreign Affairs" article. One camp, which Mead identified with Ron Paul, is neo-isolationist. The other, the Sarah Palin wing, advocates "total war" against foreign enemies, with the goal of achieving decisive victory and then retiring to domestic concerns. This approach is laissez-faire except in times of war, making it also, in a sense, isolationist.
On social issues, the Tea Party is also split. For some, opposition to same-sex marriage, abortion, and other targets of evangelical and social conservative ire is muted, either because it distracts from fiscal priorities, or it leads to government overreach. On the other hand, many, perhaps most, Tea Partiers reconcile social conservative and libertarian priorities easily. Ted Cruz, for example, sees the role of the federal government as being "to defend the sanctity of human life, and to uphold the sacrament of marriage."
The Tea Party attitude to business is also conflicted. An emphasis on self-reliance, fiscal responsibility, and personal freedom, along with a suspicion of government environmental regulation, aligns with the traditional conservative pro-business agenda. Yet many Tea Partiers fundamentally distrust the wealthy establishment on Wall Street and Capitol Hill. The movement in large part coalesced around opposition to golden parachutes and TARP bailouts.
Who Will Win In 2016?
The Republicans face a dilemma. Especially after the government shutdown, many voters doubt the Tea Party can govern, but Republican candidates still must win Tea Party-dominated primaries. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor's "operatic" defeat by a primary challenger in June is the textbook example of this danger. Mitch McConnell escaped the same fate through a tense détente with Rand Paul.
In the 2016 presidential primary, Cruz and Paul may force Jeb Bush out of his element, attacking him as a quintessential establishment politician and dredging up his surname's worst associations, so he is lucky to be facing a Clinton. Paul will force him to contend with the Tea Party's libertarian wing, Cruz with its evangelical wing. He will have to lurch to the right and then back to the center without careening off course. If he fails and loses the nomination, the Republicans are unlikely to win the White House.
Whoever wins the Republican nomination faces the fundamental challenge of changing demographics. So long as conservatives depend on the white vote, they will have more trouble winning with every election cycle. The next nominee will need one of two things: almost double the share of the non-white vote Romney earned in 2012, or a greater share of the white vote than Reagan got in 1984.
Assuming the economy improves, the Tea Party will probably fade in importance. Yet its ideas, in tamer forms, are here to stay. Evangelical Christians were a minor political force until the 1970s; now we can't imagine a Republican constituency without them. The Tea Party's radical commitment to small government will leave a lasting mark on the American right. As this commitment achieves a stable synthesis with the conservative establishment's agenda, the Republicans' crisis of identity will become less acute.
The question is, will the Democrats also tear in two over along the establishment/anti-establishment axis? A loss by establishment-as-can-be Hilary Clinton could be a rallying cry for the Elizabeth Warren left. Perhaps in 2020 it'll be the Democrats fretting over primaries.
The Bottom Line
The financial crisis led to a rift in the Republican Party, splitting it between the old guard establishment and the anti-establishment Tea Party. The Tea Party's ideas have made it into the Republican mainstream, but they are not tame yet, and primary voters are still a threat. When it comes to a national election, however, the Tea Party probably cannot win. If Jeb Bush is the nominee, the Republicans may have a shot at the White House. If not, they'll probably have to wait for 2020.
Help us little Jebby. You’re our only hope. LOL
This idiot, whoever he is, misses the point entirely. Centralized government is destroying our country. The GOP likes centralized power.
Actually, it’s the Tea Party vs. the Republicans AND Democrats.
Both of the Establishment Parties do not want to relinquish power to the people.
Why don’t we work to ensure that the AMERICAN PEOPLE WIN??
I am damn sick and tired of all the media and pundits gushing about “O[phony]bama wins!” or “Democrats win!” or “Republicans win!” or “Tea Party loses!”
EVERY time you see a headline such as the above, you can bet your ass that the AMERICAN PEOPLE LOST!
In the future we must work to ensure THAT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WIN!
What a genius David Floyd is. . .in fact, I no longer will need my brain. . I will just let David Floyd tell me what he thinks everything is. . .no more thinking for me!!!HA HA HA. . .WEEEEEEEEE!!
Don’t let the ignorant and the liberals define you. The entire premise of this article is dead wrong. The bedrock of the Democrat party is to use the government to solve all of society’s ills. The principle of the TEA party AND the Republican party is to empower the individual to solve his own problems. Fight the battle that matters: conservatives versus Democrats.
Jeb is hated by Conservatives AND the libtards even moreso than Mitt or Juan. How did it work out with those two?
Jeb Bush is a maggot.
And what they learn is that liberalism is a lie and a con game. They understand that the libs see them as mules to pull the great society, and that they're being told they must work against their own self interest. That's when they become conservatives.
And increasingly this is happening across ethnic and racial lines. Hispanics especially are aware of what the dhimmis have done to blacks and I believe they'll want no part of that. Even blacks are slowly beginning to realize that they're being used as pawns in someone else's power chess game.
Why haven't these brilliant analysts done a study to see what happens to party affiliation after people get married and start having children?
“Only you can save us, Obi Jeb Bush” “Those aren’t the RINOS you are looking for”.
Jedi mind tricks.
What tea Party?
Obama destroyed the Tea Party as a functioning organization. The present Tea Party is but a mental construct
I think 95 percent of the GOP are not conservative, so I’m looking for a third party but am supporting Ted Cruz as well.
If Cruz loses I’m not voting for the Republican presidential candidate under any circumstances......
Needs more detail:
When running for election Republicans advocate smaller government, less taxation, and less regulation.
But once elected they join democrats in building a bigger federal government, raising taxes and piling on more and more regulations.
Many elected with support of the Tea Party have betrayed them (Rubio). This is not unexpected as the TP popularity attracts opportunists.
It is unfortunate that some who we believed to be solid, like Cruz, recently betrayed us by siding with Obama on secret deal with Iran and the super secret Trans Pacific Trade Authorization.
“Especially after the government shutdown, many voters doubt the Tea Party can govern”
If what McConnell and Boehner are doing is called “governing,” I’ll gladly take the shutdowns.
We need tea party candidates like Mia Love to stop screwing us over via threats from the Rinos. She voted for Boner.
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