Cook may be right. I fully expect my ballot in November to be:
President: Hillary Clinton vs Jeb Bush
Senate: John McCain vs Mark Kelly (Mr Gabby Giffords)
I will be spending a couple of days with Charlie next week, so I will ask him for some details. His specialty is analysis of each precinct by precinct based on past performance, polls, and demographic trends. He is very, very good at that which is why all of the politicians to beat a path to his door and why lots of organizations to pay him very well for an evening of dinner and speech.