Cameron will NOT hold an EU referendum.
You’re probably correct - though it will be interesting to see how the Tory back benchers react.
He can’t avoid it. He is only ruling by a slim majority and many of his intensely eurosceptic backbenchers would rebel and threaten to bring down the government. He may not like it, and he may have secretly been hoping he could go into coalition with the Lib-Dems (who would have blocked it like they did last time) but he campaigned on a manifesto to give a referendum, and now he has a majority, he cannot escape from it.