Fighting escalates across Yemen, first air strikes on capital Sanaa

reuters ^ | Mohammed Mukhashaf and Mohammed Ghobari

[BenLurkin]

Air raids, naval shelling and ground fighting shook Yemen on Sunday in some of the most widespread combat since a Saudi-led alliance intervened last month against Iranian-allied Houthi militia who have seized wide areas of the country.

There were at least five air strikes on military positions and an area near the presidential palace compound in the Houthi-held capital Sanaa at dawn on Sunday, while warships pounded an area near the port of the southern city of Aden, residents said.

"The explosions were so big they shook the house, waking us and our kids up. Life has really become unbearable in this city," a Sanaa resident who gave his name as Jamal told Reuters.

The strikes on Sanaa were the first since the Saudi-led coalition said last week it was scaling back a campaign against the Houthis. But the air raids soon resumed as the Houthis' nationwide gains had not been notably rolled back, and there has been no visible progress toward peace talks.

Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter and arch Sunni Muslim regional adversary of Shi'ite Muslim Iran, feels menaced by the Shi'ite Houthi advance across Yemen since last September, when the rebels captured the capital.

The Houthis later forced President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi into exile. The Saudi-led intervention aims to restore Hadi and prevent Yemen disintegrating as a state, with al Qaeda militants thriving in the chaos and one of the world's busiest oil shipping lanes off the Yemeni coast at risk.

[Paladin2]

Does Yemen have any territory of value besides the port?

[VanShuyten]

Location at the mouth of the Red Sea, and a short hop to Africa.

[boycott]

Obama assured them we had their back.

Sort of like him telling Israel he’s behind them.

[wayoverontheright]

Former Yemini President Saleh had helped the Houthis take much of the country after his successor Hadi fled Aden.

Then the Arab coalition began the air campaign, which was apparently successful enough that Saleh saw defeat on the horizon. Last week he broke with the Houthis, and called for talks.

The Saudis then announced the end of the campaign. Seeing that talks may occur, and that they need to take as much territory as possible before negotiations begin, the Houthis escalated. The Saudis had to counter the escalation, so we have today increased warfare.

It appears that Iranian influence in Yemen may already be seriously degraded, and this is the Saudis’ main goal. With the Saudis controlling the airspace and along with others the surrounding waters, the Iranians will not be able to get much if any assistance to their proxies in the near future.

Saleh will be seen as having betrayed the Houthis. His life is in danger. It would be wise for the Saudis to allow him to leave the country, as he could become a valuable part of stabilizing the country moving forward.

I think the Iranians picked the wrong place to make a stand. Their military strength does not lie in their navy or air force. They gauged the lack of American resolve correctly, but never anticipated the Saudis, Egyptians, Bahrain, UAE, and other Sunni Arab states would coalesce so quickly and efficiently to counter them in Yemen.

So a strategic defeat is shaping up for the Iranians in Yemen.

It gets worse for Iran.

Due to the weak Obama negotiations with Iran, the specter of an Iranian nuke has created a situation whereby the interests of the aforementioned Sunni Arab states plus Pakistan, Turkey...... and ISRAEL now align. The Palestinian issue thus goes to the back of the bus, among other possibilities involving Israel.

Look for the Iranians to back off in Yemen and escalate in Iraq, where neither the Arab Coalition nor the Americans seem to have the will or the resolve to counter them. With Barack Obama as President, that could be the bad news.