Which presidential hopeful will get social media right in 2016?

Watchdog.org ^ | April 22, 2015 | Ryan Hagemann

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The next generation of social media use in political electioneering is about to take off as the 2016 presidential hopefuls start lining up for media attention to vie for the nomination of their respective parties.

Hillary Clinton recently came out swinging for the Democratic nomination, thus far the only Democrat to announce her candidacy, with a short video released a week ago. While the Clinton machine is already gearing up to take social media by storm, the Republican landscape looks to be where most of the early online fisticuffs will be playing out.

So how do the contenders stack up in the social media landscape? A Washington Examiner commentary notes:

Sen. Rand Paul has become the poster child for the highly active social media feed, amassing more than 1.85 million Facebook fans and nearly 540,000 Twitter followers.

In terms of engagement, [Sen. Ted] Cruz and Paul are surpassing the likes of Rep. Paul Ryan … despite having fewer followers and fans …

The newness of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s presidential aspirations shows: His online following is just a fraction of those of Paul and Cruz, as well as New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, and former Govs. Rick Perry of Texas and Mike Huckabee of Arkansas.

Ever since the Obama campaign tore through the social media scene in 2008, Republicans have been scrambling to close the “digital divide” between their opponents’ engagement efforts and their own. Much of the advantage that the Obama administration has held in this space over the past two terms could be coming to an end, however.

Republican contenders like Paul and Cruz have been capitalizing on what appears to be a growing discontent with the current administration’s lackluster push to reform domestic surveillance practices. This will likely be one of the most important issue spaces that Republicans will have to address if they are serious about continuing to be a viable party in the digital age.

The Nation Security Agency surveillance revelations made public by Edward Snowden in the spring of 2013 has resulted in certain traditionally left-leaning bastions of democratic political support, especially in Silicon Valley, to begin questioning their political loyalties.

And for Democrats like Clinton, the value of continued support from this demographic is not lost on political pundits. In San Francisco, Politico reported on a panel discussion of wealthy start-up founders who discussed their gripes with heavy-handed government on technology: “Democrats in San Francisco and back in Washington acknowledge the libertarians and conservatives in the Bay Area represent a rich vein for financial support and new talent, though they are far from conceding the region to [Rand] Paul or anyone else in the GOP.”

Marijuana legalization, immigration reform, and an end to NSA surveillance are going to be among the biggest issues affecting the outcome of the upcoming campaigns, and are most definitely going to be the issue spaces that techies in Silicon Valley are most concerned about.

At the San Fransisco meeting, Joe Lonsdale, a billionaire venture capitalist and PayPal alumni who joined Rand Paul on a panel challenging the NSA surveillance operations exposed by Edward Snowden, told Politico, “Republicans had about a decade to start incorporating libertarian ideas on marijuana and surveillance, as well as a more friendly immigration system. Otherwise, he warned, the GOP risks staying relevant.”

Given the propensity of this demographic to typically be younger millennials with a libertarian bend, the result of online media outreach campaigns will be a strong indicator of which Republican presidential candidate ends up being the party nominee. The millennial crowd will be particularly engaged in those political campaigns that utilize Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and other forms of online community engagement on a regular basis to address their more social-focused concerns.

A CNN poll from April 20 revealed, “While 18% see Bush as the candidate who best represents the future of the Republican Party, the same share say fellow Floridian Rubio is the best representation of the GOP’s future. Paul, at 10%, is the only other candidate in double digits on this question.”

This is a particularly important insight into the characterization of the candidate pool, as Paul in particular has gone to great lengths to reach out to Silicon Valley, attempting to sell his brand of “conservatarianism” as the future of the Republican Party.

Meanwhile, Ted Cruz and Scott Walker continue to play to the more conservative base of the party, looking inward and focusing on rallying the Tea Party caucus to their cause.

Despite garnering significant mainstream media attention, Rubio and Bush continue to almost completely ignore the social media constituency, with each receiving less than 3 percent of Facebook mentions and 2 percent of tweets.

As the contested race for the Republican primary marches on, the importance of social media will only increase. Teddy Godd, a former digital director for the Obama reelection campaign, recently discussed the importance that these services will play in the upcoming election, arguing that “imperfect as it is, [Facebook] is probably the biggest trove of data of what actual human beings outside of Washington, D.C., are talking about day-to-day and that makes it intrinsically important.”

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How does anyone get social media “right”?

[Organic Panic]

None of them will. Obama controls facebook, twitter, google, and microsoft.