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Kemp: US Oil Production Is Probably Peaking Right Now
Reuters via Rig Zone ^ | April 08, 2015 | John Kemp

Posted on 04/08/2015 9:17:19 AM PDT by thackney

...Output will average 9.37 million barrels per day (bpd) in April and the same in May before falling to 9.33 million bpd in June and 9.04 million bpd by September, the EIA predicted in the April edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)....

Production is forecast not to exceed this month's level for another 18 months. The EIA has cut its forecast for the end of 2016 by 230,000 bpd compared with three months ago...

It is unlikely a halving of the rig count can be completely offset by greater target selectivity and other efficiency improvements such as employing only the most powerful rigs, drilling longer laterals and reaching target depth faster.

Drilling data points to a strong probability that production from new wells will soon start to fall - if it is not falling already. Given the rapid declines in output from wells drilled in 2013 and 2014, total output from new and legacy wells should start to fall soon.

The most common question I am asked at the moment is: if the rig count has fallen by 50 percent, why is output still rising?

The simple answer: there is a delay of six months or more between changes in the number of new wells being drilled and reported changes in production.

It can take 20-30 days for a rig to drill a new well and then another 60 days or more for the well to be fractured and all the above-ground equipment put in place before the well flows its first oil.

Most major oil-producing states require well operators to submit a monthly report on the amount of oil and gas produced, but the first report is not usually due for up to two or three months after a new well has begun flowing.

(Excerpt) Read more at rigzone.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: energy; oil; peakoil
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Excerpted for Reuters
1 posted on 04/08/2015 9:17:19 AM PDT by thackney
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To: thackney

How many times have they claimed this in the last 125 years? Don’t they get that technology is always finding new ways to do things?


2 posted on 04/08/2015 9:18:33 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You can help: https://www.tedcruz.org/donate/)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Always a function of price.

When prices rises significantly again, so will production.


3 posted on 04/08/2015 9:19:45 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney
I listened through an interview with the former CEO of Shell I believe...can't remember, but he was CEO of one of the biggies.

Makes ya mad as hades to listen to the manipulation of the oil markets by speculators, OPEC and the feral gubbamint.

For the sake of the Texas economy, I'm ok with $70-$90 bucks for a 42gallon barrel of oil, but $140?

That's insane and now that we have the technology to extract oil that once was considered unrecoverable, hope we never allow OPEC or as this CEO called them “predatory” cartels to put the squeeze on America ever again.

4 posted on 04/08/2015 9:23:59 AM PDT by servantboy777
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To: thackney
US Oil Production Peaking

I saw that same headline when I was a kid waiting for my first drivers license.

That's back when you could buy Sunoco 260 for 35¢ a gallon.


5 posted on 04/08/2015 9:31:10 AM PDT by Iron Munro (It IS as BAD as you think and they ARE out to get you.)
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To: Iron Munro

When I was mowing yards in the Texas summer heat in the 60s I recall taking the one gallon tank to the filling station and with a quarter getting a gallon of gas and have 2 cents left for 2 grape bubble gum balls.


6 posted on 04/08/2015 9:40:18 AM PDT by Jolla
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To: thackney

PEAK OIL, again....


7 posted on 04/08/2015 9:41:59 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: thackney

Again?!


8 posted on 04/08/2015 9:42:43 AM PDT by facedown (Armed in the Heartland)
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To: thackney

There you go. If OPEC manages to ratchet up the price per barrel of oil, American drilling risk becomes more rational.


9 posted on 04/08/2015 9:46:25 AM PDT by Sgt_Schultze (If a border fence isn't effective, why is there a border fence around the White House?)
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To: thackney

For those whose reaction was the same as mine, no, this isn’t Peak Oil. This is peak market. Apparently supply and demand are related somehow. Who knew?


10 posted on 04/08/2015 9:46:53 AM PDT by Billthedrill
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To: 1Old Pro

Yes, it does get old. I read about peak uranium somewhere recently too in regards to nuke power.


11 posted on 04/08/2015 9:48:29 AM PDT by jospehm20
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To: facedown
Again?!

This time it's really true.

Really.

No kidding - Really, Really.


12 posted on 04/08/2015 9:50:23 AM PDT by Iron Munro (It IS as BAD as you think and they ARE out to get you.)
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To: thackney

“Always a function of price.

When prices rises significantly again, so will production.”

Exactly right as long as the government stays out of it.


13 posted on 04/08/2015 9:52:02 AM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: servantboy777

Michael Berry speaks to former Shell President John Hofmeister, they discuss energy policy, gas prices, the Keystone XL Pipeline.

http://www.ktrh.com/media/podcast-michael-berry-show-on-ktrh-michaelberry/michael-berry-040715-5pm-25950897/#ixzz3WjnUWcNP

Tuesday, April 7th 2015, 5pm


14 posted on 04/08/2015 9:53:52 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: Iron Munro; facedown; 1Old Pro

This isn’t about oil not being technically available, it is about the economics of producing at this current price.


15 posted on 04/08/2015 9:57:35 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

So we tapped out ANWR?


16 posted on 04/08/2015 10:02:44 AM PDT by Blackirish
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To: Blackirish

ANWR isn’t available to the oil producers.

This article is not claiming that oil is not technically available. It is stating reality; at today’s prices, for the areas available, oil production in the US is leveling off and will soon begin to decline.


17 posted on 04/08/2015 10:06:25 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney
Of course US oil production has peaked. Prices are collapsing so why would any oil company increase production?

When oil prices recover, so will production rates.

18 posted on 04/08/2015 10:12:26 AM PDT by Yo-Yo (Is the /sarc tag really necessary?)
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To: thackney

For the love of Pete!


19 posted on 04/08/2015 11:20:54 AM PDT by vpintheak (Call the left what they are - regressive control-freaks)
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To: thackney

HHHMMMM: didn’t I hear the same thing in 1974?


20 posted on 04/08/2015 11:31:11 AM PDT by 5th MEB (Progressives in the open; --- FIRE FOR EFFECT!!)
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