Posted on 03/13/2015 10:13:28 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Democrats who opposed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech before a joint session of Congress earlier this month wanted to have it both ways. Many claimed that Netanyahu’s speech was a grave miscalculation; it politicized America’s alliance with Israel, and would expose the prime minister as something less than impartial when it came to domestic American politics. This, they said, would reflect poorly on him as a politician and expose his inability to navigate the complexities of American politics. Simultaneously, some on the American left claimed that Netanyahu’s speech would have the effect of boosting his stature at home and might frame the prime minister as a political figure who commands unique influence in Washington.
These two eventualities are mutually exclusive. Whichever way the chips fell, Democrats would be able to claim prescience.
In the ten days that have elapsed since Netanyahu addressed Congress, the fallout from that speech has been relatively limited. A spate of new opinion polls released on Friday with just four days to go before Israelis head to the polls, however, indicate that Netanyahu might not have enjoyed much of a popularity boost from his address to Congress. In fact, these polls show the center-left Zionist Union alliance pulling ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud government.
A poll in the top-selling Yediot Aharonot newspaper showed the Zionist Union winning 26 of the 120 seats in the Israeli parliament, or Knesset, against 22 for Likud.
Other polls for the Jerusalem Post and Maariv dailies, and for Israeli public radio, also showed a four-seat gap, with the Zionist Union taking 25 seats to 21 for Likud.
All the polls showed the Joint List, a newly formed alliance of Israel’s main Arab parties, in third, with 13 seats.
The centrist Yesh Atid of former finance minister Yair Lapid and the far-right Jewish Home were both expected to win at least 11 seats, the polls showed.
Analysts speculate that Zionist Union, a recently created fusion party that merges the left-leaning Labour party with the Tzipi Livni-led HaTnuah party, enjoys its present advantage because of its ability to attract Israel’s centrist and center-left voters. Moreover, while American chauvinists might convince themselves that U.S.-centric issues are foremost on the minds of Israeli voters, pocketbook considerations may be trumping security concerns in the minds of many average Israelis.
On that point, a recent dispatch from Tel Aviv via Newsweek’s Marc Schulman is instructive:
I was in a restaurant this afternoon and witnessed an argument between the owner, his 60-plus-year-old-mother and two regulars. The whole group had previously been Likud supporters. However, today, only the mother still planned to vote for Netanyahu. As a result, she was being attacked by all the others.
The others argued that Netanyahu did not care about needs of the average Israeli; that the security situation has been the same for the last decade and will no doubt be the same for the next decade; Iran has been a threat for the last 10 years and will continue to be for the next 10. Therefore, it is time give someone else a chance to do something about the problems in the country.
…
In the past, political observers have observed that Israelis say that what matters most are economic factors, but in the end vote based on their fears and security concerns. This time, Israelis may cast their ballots based on the fear that their children will not be able to buy an apartment. That concern may just win out over their fear that an extremely divided Arab world presents any significant threat to their future.
It’s certainly not as though Netanyahu’s speech before Congress is a nonfactor for Israeli voters, but it’s also apparently not the most important aspect for those still deciding on how to vote.
Feeling the heat, Netanyahu has begun to make his closing arguments to the Israeli public.
“If we do not close the gap between the [Zionist Union] and Likud – Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni will be the prime ministers of Israel, backed by the Arabs,” the prime minister recently confessed.
He cautioned right-wing voters against casting their ballots for other right-leaning parties – “like Kulanu, Bayit Yehudi and Yisrael Beytenu” – which takes away mandates from the Likud bloc. This, Netanyahu told viewers, paves the way for Herzog and Livni to form a left-wing coalition.
Netanyahu urged “everyone who wants me to be the prime minister” to vote for his faction. Only then will he be able to build up the country, spur the economy and secure the citizens of Israel, he reassured listeners who tuned in to the interactive videocast.
It’s not at all clear that Netanyahu will retain his role as leader of the Israeli government after March 17. Moreover, the Obama administration may just get the government they’ve always wanted in Jerusalem. Even if Netanyahu can retain control of the government, he will emerge from the elections a diminished figure. Either way, American Democrats will proclaim victory.
Neither party has a majority in the Knesset. So they have to build a coalition with other parties, and there are more right-wing parties than left wing. Netenyahu may have to link up with people he’d rather not work with, and it’ll make his job a lot harder, but he still has a better chance of forming a government than Labor does.
Yes but with this, will Netanyahu still be the Prime Minister? Or will the leader of the leading party ( in this case Zionist Union ) be the PM relegating Bibi to Cabinet member?
I hope the Israelis understand that if Netanyahu goes, so goes Israel.
Zionist Union is Labor Party plus Hatnuah I think, running as a single ticket. They are not going to form any alliance with Likud. If they have the most seats then they may, repeat may, be asked to form a government. But if they can't get enough parties to join with them to get 61 votes in the Knesset then they will fail and it will be Bibi's turn If Netanyahu can form a government, Likud will still be the largest single party and Netenyahu the PM.
With apologies to IJN Admiral Yamamoto
“I fear that Israel will awaken a sleeping MIDGET and put to sleep a ferocious GIANT.”
G-D Forbid
Don’t Obama and the USA democrats have their Dirty Tricks Team in Israel working to push Netanyahu out?
That’s what I’ve heard on many a talk show.
Even if ZU gets more seats than Netanyahu, neither will be close to a 61-seat majority. Netanyahu has a greater likelihood of forming a coalition than ZU although, to do so, he will have to align with people he'd prefer not to work with (including the ultra-Orthodox religious parties).
There is a slim possibility of a national unity government where Netanyahu and ZU's Herzog rotate the prime Ministership, leaving the hard left, hard right and religious parties in the opposition. But Herzog and Netanyahu would both hate to do that.
PRAY FOR THE PEACE OF ISRAEL, Jerusalem, AND FOR ALL SEEKING TO KNOW AND SERVE THE TRUE GOD. IF PEOPLE DO NOT VOTE IT HELPS THE ENEMY.
LET US SEIZE THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS ELECTION.
NETANYUHAN IS A WISE, STRONG LEADER, PERHAPS THE BEST IN THE WORLD AT THIS TIME.
HEAVENLY FATHER,WE CRY OUT TO THEE ... ALLOW NOT FOR EVIL TO PREVAIL AND DESTROY THY PEOPLES, WE LOOK TO THEE FOR PROTECTION, GRACE, MERCY, LOVING KINDNESS, GOODNESS, RIGHTEOUSNESS, FORGIVENESS, THANK THEE FOR HEARING OUR PRAYER.
SAVE ISRAEL FORM THOSE DESIRING TO DESTROY THY PEOPLES TO TURN FROM THEE, IN JESUS NAME, AMEN.
Is Netanyahu About to Lose the Election? [Israel]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3267392/posts
Netanyahu Slips in Polls Days Before Israeli Elections
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3267231/posts
Here’s an article to help people figure out and understand Israeli elections ... :-) ...
Everything you need to know about Israeli elections but were afraid to ask
http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/1.646418
Israel has been controlled by leftists for most of its existence and Israel hasn’t been gone because of it ... even though their very existence has been threatened and they’ve been attacked many times!
Obama got his cheating apparatus over there to “help” his buddy win.
Israelis have been making really bad choices since the Old Testament.
The dueling polls on the Israeli election indicates that Obama’s interference has taken the same tack as his election tactics in this country. Watch for election fraud and absentee ballots from Palestinians and anti-Zionist with dual citizenship.
Is their left as adept at vote fraud as ours is?
Palestinians don’t vote in Israel, but rather in the PA elections and ther territories ... but Israeli citizens who are Arabs do vote in Israel. About 20% of the population are Israeli-Arab citizens.
They don’t need fraud. The leftists have been running Israel for most of its history, plus being quite involved in the formation of Israel ... :-) ...
The Zionist Union was established in December 2014 ? In fighting will be heavy ,LOL
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.