Ok these “games” are ridiculous. The sub starts out a few miles from the CVBG in almost perfect position. This does not reflect reality. In a hot war scenario a US CVBG would not go into a high “probability” area for a sub to begin with. Every subs position form the time it leaves port to the time it returns from patrol is tracked. Thru classified means, the subs AOP-Area of Probability would be calculated and AOP plotted. Now the better the ASW tracking the smaller the AOP. Sometimes the bad guy is lost and the AOP’s do get big until it is located again and it’s AOP shrinks again(a new datum is established). CVBG’s do NOT GO INTO AOP’s unless the mission is super critical. ASW is a game of statistics and probability. These fictitious exercises are stupid.
They are a means to an end—finding unquestioned assumptions that render a strategy ( with undetected flaw )dangerous. Competition inspires genius (and bragging rights). Rough on the ego, but can you counter the move?