Posted on 03/03/2015 5:29:25 AM PST by thackney
Because of the long timelines associated with Gulf of Mexico (GOM) projects, the recent downturn in oil prices is expected to have minimal direct impact on GOM crude oil production through 2016. EIA projects GOM production to reach 1.52 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2015 and 1.61 million bbl/d in 2016, or about 16% and 17% of total U.S. crude oil production in those two years, respectively.
The forecasted production growth is driven both by new projects and the redevelopment and expansion of older producing fields. Five deepwater projects began in the last three months of 2014: Stone Energy-operated Cardamom Deep and Cardona projects, Chevron-operated Jack/St. Malo fields, Murphy Oil-operated Dalmatian, and Hess-operated Tubular Bells. Also occurring at the end of 2014 was the redevelopment of Mars (Mars B) and Na Kika (Na Kika Phase 3), both of which are mature fields. Cardamom Deep, Jack/St. Malo, and Tubular Bells were slated for a late 2014 start-up, as well. Although industry press releases have indicated they have started producing, their production data have not yet been reported to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) under the U.S. Department of the Interior.
The relatively high number of fields that came online in 2014 and are scheduled for 2015 and 2016 production start-ups reflects the revival of interest and activity in the GOM following the moratorium on deepwater drilling after the 2010 Deepwater Horizon incident. While the moratorium officially lasted from April 30 to October 12, 2010, there were relatively few field start-ups in 2011 through 2013.
Thirteen fields are expected to start up in the next two years, eight in 2015 and five in 2016. Development of offshore fields requires both surface and subsea production equipment. The high cost of surface structures limits their application to large fields. Those fields with reserves not large enough to justify the necessary capital expenditure use subsea infrastructure to connect to nearby existing platforms. This approach, known as a subsea tieback, can reduce project costs and start-up times. More than half of the projects starting up in 2015 and 2016 will be subsea tiebacks to existing production platforms. These new projects, combined with continuing production from the developments brought online in late 2014, are forecast to add 265,000 bbl/d by the end of 2015. The production estimates for 2015 and 2016 (see first graph) include adjustments to account for seasonal shut-ins from hurricanes.
The current low oil price adds uncertainty to the timelines of deepwater GOM projects, with projects in early development stages exposed to the greatest risk of delay. In an effort to reduce this risk, producers are collaborating to develop projects more cost-effectively, to shorten the time to final investment decision and first production, and by sharing development costs. For instance, Chevron, BP, and ConocoPhillips recently announced a collaborative effort to explore and appraise 24 jointly held offshore leases in the northwest portion of the Gulf of Mexico's Keathley Canyon.
Federal oil lease sale of western Gulf tracts set for August
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2015/03/02/federal-oil-lease-sale-of-western-gulf-tracts-set-for-august/
March 2, 2015
A federal lease sale offering 21 million acres in the western Gulf of Mexico for oil and gas exploration and development is set for August.
The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management announced Monday that the sale of leases for areas off the Texas coast will take place in New Orleans. It will include approximately 4,000 blocks, from nine to 250 miles offshore, in depths ranging from 16 to almost 11,000 feet.
Excerpted for AP content
More detail than you will want to know at:
Final Notice of Sale Package
Central Gulf of Mexico Planning Area (CPA)
Outer Continental Shelf (OCS)
Oil and Gas Lease Sale 235
http://www.boem.gov/Final-NOS-235-Package/
My forty years of being in the oil industry I surmised that these technological improvements are the greatest:
1. 3D Seismic
2. Horizontal drilling and staged fraccing
3. Drilling, Completion and Equipping in Deep Water.
The abilities of 3. opened up enormous amounts of the earth to exploration and development previously off-limits. Geological strata does not know whether it is on land, shallow water or deep water.
As an example of 3., I recall working in 1978 and was commuting with a geophysicist who was processing seismic for the Baltimore Canyon offshore east coast, then opened up for exploration. He asked ‘how difficult would it be to drill in 5,000’ of water?’
I laughed and told him ‘wait until the next century’. I said it is too tough and would need a big field discovered.
He told me there is a structure out there that if full to base has 5 billion bbls in it.
Well, this is the next century and that structure remains there waiting to be drilled.
By Jason Dearen
The Associated Press
© July 18, 2014
ST. AUGUSTINE BEACH, Fla.
The Obama administration is reopening the Eastern Seaboard to offshore oil and gas exploration, announcing final approval Friday of sonic cannons that can pinpoint energy deposits deep beneath the ocean floor.
The approval opens the outer continental shelf from Delaware to Florida to exploration by energy companies preparing to apply for drilling leases in 2018, when current congressional limits are set to expire.
The bureau estimates that 4.72 billion barrels of recoverable oil and 37.51 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas lies beneath federal waters from Florida to Maine. Oil lobbyists say drilling for it could generate $195 billion in investment and spending between 2017 and 2035, creating thousands of jobs and contributing $23.5 billion per year to the economy.
These estimates describe the total amount of energy “technically recoverable” from the outer continental shelf, which includes the seabed off New Jersey, New York and New England. But the north Atlantic zone remains off limits for now, apparently for political reasons. While some states have passed drilling bans, Virginia and the Carolinas requested the seismic surveys in an effort to grow their economies, bureau officials said Friday.
In any case, the area to be mapped is farther offshore in federal waters, beyond the reach of state law.
Before the U.S. Atlantic seabed was closed to oil exploration in the 1980s, some exploratory wells were drilled, but the region has never had significant offshore production.
“One thing we find is, the more you get out and drill and explore to confirm what you see in the seismic — you end up finding more oil and gas than what you think is out there when you started,” Radford said.
http://hamptonroads.com/2014/07/obama-opens-east-coast-oil-search-sonic-cannons
While the feds have continued to hold out the eastern seaboard as a possibility, they have not yet openned it for leasing and have no planned sales.
They are spending some more money evaluating the area with siemic study as your link discusses.
I surmised that these technological improvements are the greatest:
1. 3D Seismic
2. Horizontal drilling and staged fraccing
3. Drilling, Completion and Equipping in Deep Water.
- - - - -
I agree with your top 3, at least in “modern times”.
yeah, some of my forty years might be not modern.
For instance, the one that might be next on my list is steamflood injection, introduced in the 60s by Getty Oil in CA. Lots of oil being generated that might not otherwise be recoverable. It is just so selective on where it can be done(low API, shallow).
Only one of the EOR techniques that can be considered widespread enough to warrant being ranked.
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