I think he's been living on borrowed time for a decade or more already. Who is going to come to his aid? Luka has no friends anywhere. The most he can hope for are protests from places like the 'Stans. But they can't help him. They are on the menu too.
He doesn't need any. His strategic location means aid will arrive from his neighbors irrespective of whether he was friendly with them. North Korea was mainly friendly with the Russians. But when UN forces approached the Yalu in 1950, the Chinese jumped in to help the North Koreans because a unified Korea under American tutelage was unacceptable to them.
Note also that the Stans have a unique opportunity to fight the Russians at little cost in infrastructure, while obtaining valuable combat experience that will be useful if Belarus falls. If they’re smart, they’ll send “volunteer” units to help beat back the Russian invasion. Their dilemma is that they are relying on Russia to ward off the Chinese, who have territorial ambitions in the region. And these ambitions may involve physical annexation. Ultimately, their best hope for remaining independent may be some kind of collective security agreement with the West.