Posted on 01/07/2015 4:09:06 AM PST by thackney
...the oil-service stocks started to slide. I called the analysts and nobody had a good explanation why. Oil demand was still growing, driven by Asian economies that were expanding at a 7% annual rate. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries still seemed to have a stranglehold on oil prices, as U.S. crude production, which peaked at around 10 million barrels a day, was down to below 6.5 million barrels a day and falling steadily.
By 1998 Asia’s demand had shrunk by 350,000 barrels a day amid a growing financial crisis that should sound familiar to anybody today. Economies stumbled as companies that borrowed in dollars found it impossible to repay with earnings denominated in falling local currencies. The relative price of oil, denominated then as now in dollars, skyrocketed. The global price of oil which had risen smartly to a nominal $25 a barrel in early 1997 (the equivalent of $36.78 today), plunged below $10 a barrel and as low as $6.31 for heavy Mayan crude.
Yet here was Schlumberger, the queen of the oil-service sector, falling from a peak split-adjusted price of almost $44 in September 1997 to $36 in January on its way to below $22 by July 1998. Halliburton HAL -0.98% plunged from almost $27 to $13, and Weatherford International fell from $16 to below $5.
Only later did the entire world realize that Mr. Market, by taking down the oil-service stocks in late 1997, was predicting the Asian financial crisis that would emerge full-blown in 1998. According to this informative bit of Congressional testimony from 1999 by John Lichtbau, then chairman of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, Asia/Pacific demand including Japan accounted for 80% of global demand growth from 1990 to 1997, and still expanded by 750,000 barrels a day in 1997. But inventories were...
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
Interesting. Wonder if this price drop could foreshadow a crash of the Chinese economy, which has been predicted by some for quite a while now.
Holy silver lining, Batman! It’s obviously always sunny in Houston. I guess it’s endemic to natural resource people (and the journos who interview them). And that is why the peaks are so euphoric and the lows are such downers. Because they’re either pedal to the metal or the world is ending. And right now, it’s still pedal to the metal, at least for oil. I suspect we’ll see a few dozen bankruptcies and liquidations before the supply comes back into balance.
If you had a crystal ball, you would know........ unless, you are looking at the crystal and don’t realize it.
Thanks.... I read the entire Forbes article and learned something
And right now, it’s still pedal to the metal, at least for oil.
?????
Antero Resources to lay off more than 250 contract brokers
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2015/01/06/antero-resources-to-lay-off-more-than-250-contract-brokers/
Oil company cuts spending but expects production growth
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2015/01/05/oil-company-cuts-spending-but-expects-production-growth/
Texas, U.S. rig count declines
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2015/01/05/texas-u-s-rig-count-declines/
Oil driller laying off 700 in California
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2015/01/02/oil-driller-laying-off-700-in-california/
Oil-field lodging company slashes jobs, curbs spending
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2014/12/29/civeo-cuts-45-of-its-u-s-jobs-curbs-spending/
Enbridge lays off some Houston-area workers
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2014/12/12/enbridge-lays-off-some-houston-area-workers/
Halliburton lays off 1,000 employees in Eastern Hemisphere
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2014/12/11/halliburton-lays-off-1000-employees-in-eastern-hemisphere/
BP cutting jobs
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2014/12/07/bp-cutting-jobs/
Hercules Offshore to lay off 324 workers
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2014/11/03/hercules-offshore-to-lay-off-324-workers/
Oil prices fall to five-year low; 250,000 jobs at stake in 8 states
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2014/12/29/oil-prices-fall-to-five-year-low-250000-jobs-at-stake-in-8-states/
Oil crunch could cost Texas 128,000 jobs, Fed model shows
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2014/12/18/oil-crunch-could-cost-texas-128000-jobs-fed-model-shows/
They’re moving ahead with new projects, when they need to be retrenching. The EIA projection is for a 700K bpd production increase in 2015 for the US alone.
http://www.mrt.com/business/oil/article_9824409e-9516-11e4-99db-a7d06baf4ac3.html
How about Saudi Arabia sucking all the oxygen out of the room, and suffocating all the rivals in the oil production business all over the world?
Back in the bad old days of unbridled capitalism, John D. Rockefeller the first had used the strategy of selling oil in various localities for less than his competitors, driving small producers into penury or even bankruptcy, then buying up their assets for a pittance, absorbing that entity into the Standard Oil network. As Standard Oil continued to grow, at the expense of these smaller companies, there was clearly a “need” for the US government to intercede, with something called “trust-busting”.
There are no international “trust-busters” to take off against Saudi Arabia. In fact, these international “Malefactors of great wealth” may be feeding this price war, in the hopes of getting greater control over ALL the means of oil production, and eventually creating a super-OPEC cartel.
And artificial scarcities shall exist everywhere.
Understand that major oil projects takes years to complete.
In some ways, it’s on autopilot. The leases and equipment are lined up and paid for. It’s the natural resource equivalent of Greek tragedy. Given recent supply developments, the outcome is somewhat expected but there is nothing anyone can do to avert it, short of illegal price-fixing, and maybe not even then, given the amount of debt that’s been taken on.
Saudi Arabia oil production is down from last year.
In thousand barrels per day:
Sep 13
10,037
Oct 13
9,714
Nov 13
9,626
Sep 14
9,673
Oct 14
9,650
Nov 14
9,590
Absolutely. Some of this output increase is on autopilot.
the remnants of Standard Oil joined to form ExxonMobil.
that company can weather the storm
Exactly. For a small land operator, they can drill just enough new wells to keep from loosing their mineral leases.
But if Chevron/Shell/ExxonMobil is 4 years into a multi-billion dollar offshore platform, they are not going to mothball it. They will just slow down the fabrication so they are not paying overtime up to the point of excess dock and yard charges.
Something is weird, very weird, about this sudden oil price fixing (er, oil price drop).
Certainly, Obola’s mainstream media is “complaining” about all of the economic “problems” of the oil price drop, but then giving HIM all of the benefits of the raising economy that comes with it!
But then stocks fall the past few days - when they “should be” rising if future economic activity is going up. ??? But, then again, stocks artificially kept rising the past 4-1/2 years - not because the economy was better (or even showed the potential for getting better) but because the hundred million still working had NO OTHER PLACE to put their 401 and IRA deposits EXCEPT the stock market. Given a market with lots of money forced into it, you’d expect to see price of stocks going up even as the recession continued for 6-1/2 years.
But this latest oil price dumping? Does NOT make sense.
OF COURSE there are economic problems created by the price drop.
ANY drastic economic change creates problems. Also creates opportunities, of course, but generally not for the same people. :)
That’s why any economic policy or issue needs to be looked at for net effect, which often isn’t easy to manage. Looking at pluses or minuses in isolation is inherently misleading.
A lot of emphasis is being placed on the production sectors, while the benefits to the consumer are being ignored. So is the plunge in natural gas prices, and for the consumer, perhaps this is more important than cheaper gasoline.
In my town we are now paying $1.81 per gallon, down approximately $1.40 per gallon from mere months ago. This is a savings of approximately $20 per fillup. This is a monumental benefit for the working poor, and not insignificant for the rest, not to mention businesses.
Natural gas has plummeted 25% in the last few weeks. Everything we consume will be positively affected if nat gas stays where it is. Plastics, packaging, manufacturing in general and food processing in particular will benefit, as will the consumers of nearly all products and services.
Another benefit is that I believe when people go to the pump, they instinctively know that this wasn’t a gift from the government. The benefactor here is of course, the “market”. So it’s a win from a psychological, and thus political standpoint, for those who oppose big government.
Amazing, not a single word about the Oil for Food Program being used to manipulate the price of oil.
As a small operator I learned real quick to wait until Bill Clinton and Saddam Hussein rattled sabers and drove the price of oil up before making a sell of a load of oil then hold the oil in storage until after Clinton OK’d the sell of Iraqi oil for OFF which drove the price down.
Marc Rich didn’t dream up the OFF program out of the goodness of his heart.
It was a no loose way of playing the futures market just like Hillary’s cattle futures scam only on a much larger scale.
Should be: “which often isn’t easy to measure.”
This may simply be Russian oligarchs selling their liquid assets outside of Russia to raise funds to cover losses at home, coupled with US and European trend followers selling along with / front running them.
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