They have to hold an official count and and get 218+ votes with the membership. The leadership tried to grease the skids last november post-election, but it isn’t official yet. I’m not sure whether this happens Monday or over the weekend. Normally each party caucuses, settles on its candidate, and the vote goes down strictly by party, but that may not happen this time. If the rats all vote normally for Pelosi and 30 conservatives merely abstain Boner is denied a win. In many years the ‘majority’ party would adjurn to caucus to find an acceptable compromise candidate while the ‘minority’ party sat back and smirked. But I’m not certain Boner will accept defeat gracefully nor am I certain the rats wouldn’t offer a lifeline. TX legislature kept a RINO as speaker with Rat votes IIRC. I’m not sure how it would all play out. There would have to be at least 30 RINOs willing to be picking the speaker with open Democratic support if there were enough conservatives to block a purely GOP pick. Are there enough RINOs willing to come that far out of their closet to save Boner, or would they rather try to sneak one of their by as Boner’s replacement? It would certainly become interesting and I would not count on these votes being forgotten, not even by the MSM. It would be too juicy not to cover it.
Those contemplating change here may want to review what happened after Newt resigned as speaker after nearly losing the GOP majority in the ‘98 elections. It was said by all Bob Livingston was going to be Speaker... until Larry Flynt took him out. Dick Armey was next in line as majority leader, but passed, as did the whip Tom Delay. Dennis Hastert as picked as someone all could accept, but not as anyone who could have been predicted. Delay later was speaker, and a decent one, until rat shysters took him down. If Boner falls it would become... interesting. Those pushing for his removal DON’T have to have a replacement beforehand, just they don’t require an Obamacare replacement to vote it out. Requiring such up front is a false card tending to support the GOPe. There WILL be people interested in taking the job with large enough egos to think they can do it, likely several such. The caucus will sort them out. Although they’d best be thinking of contingencies.