Posted on 12/09/2014 5:00:42 AM PST by thackney
There are more than a dozen major shale plays in production. But just three account for almost all the rise in oil output since 2009 and nearly two thirds of all rigs in operation: the combined Bakken/Three Forks in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford and Permian in Texas.
These three are the most mature plays and least likely to be affected by the decline in prices. Marginal plays are more likely to bear the brunt of any decline in drilling activity. Nonetheless, the big three account for so much of the shale boom that any slowdown will have to encompass them.
Fortunately, drilling activity in North Dakota can be tracked in real time. North Dakota's Department of Mineral Resources (DMR), which regulates oil and gas drilling in the state, publishes comprehensive data on drilling permits in its Daily Activity Report, a monthly summary entitled the Director's Cut, as well as a daily list of rigs operating in the state, all on its website (www.dmr.nd.gov).
The department also publishes comprehensive monthly data on the number of wells and their daily output. In addition, public data is available on prices that Bakken producers are able to realise for their crude from buyers such as Plains Marketing, which posts standardised buying prices on its website (www.paalp.com), as well as from the DMR....
The first point to note is that while oil prices have been falling since mid-June, the volume of drilling activity, as measured by applications for new permits, has shown no sign of slowing so far.
In October, exploration and production companies filed for permits to drill 328 new wells, the second-highest number on record....
The sharp drop in prices should eventually feed through into less drilling and slower output growth, but there is no sign of that happening yet...
(Excerpt) Read more at rigzone.com ...
Ping for later reading. Thanks for posting this.
Part of the lack of slowdown can be attributed to the eternal optimism of drillers.
The flow from already fraced wells pays for them. Plus the cost of putting a well into production is not as high as media types think, lots of room for creative Hollyweird style bookkeeping.
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