OIL GIANT WARNS: Crude Could Crash To $30

Financial Post businessinsider.com ^ | 11-30-2014 | Claudia Cattaneo, Financial Post; Myles Udland

[MrB]

This will be a boost to the economy.
Envision a big bulge in the garden hose, headed your way.
You don’t “feel” it yet, but it will be here pretty soon.

Wouldn’t it be wonderful, though, to put a few “Royal Saudi” families back on their camels, wondering the desert?

[HamiltonJay]

Oil, is, was and always will be a sub $50 a bbl commodity, speculation and churning contracts are the only reason it has ever been above that price.

[The_Media_never_lie]

Wouldn’t it be wonderful, though, to put a few “Royal Saudi” families back on their camels, wondering the desert?

Yes, that would be wonderful. I am hoping the guys in North Dakota, the frackers etc. domestically would do that, along with a resurgent nuclear industry. I just don't think we need a bust to spur the economy.

Cheaper gas prices may indeed be good, a bust is bad. 25 percent of the junk bond market is oil ex and p, and we do not need a credit crisis.

[The_Media_never_lie]

It’s not everything to the economy, but it is equivalent to a significant tax break to producers and consumers alike. Joe Average already has more money in his pocket because of it. Don’t you? Hasn’t the price of gas gone down for you?

The price of gas is down, but the value of my investments is way down. Not a good economy.

[9YearLurker]

The market in general is up, so I take it you’re overweighted in energy?

[The_Media_never_lie]

Yes, I am very overweight energy. I am only hanging in there, but if I can withstand the panic and stick with it for 3 years, I will be just fine. That is, unless we have another 2008.

[gogeo]

The price of crude is supposed to be about 80% of the price of a gasoline...

Really. Why?

[ROCKLOBSTER]

Why?

Because the rest of the price comes from something else.

[gogeo]

No, I'm wondering where that % number came from...since the only true variable is the cost of crude. Do taxes go down, does transportation become cheaper, as prices for crude go down?

It's entirely possible that crude was a % of total cost at some point in time, but to name any number and say its always that is mathematically impossible.

[ROCKLOBSTER]

Well, I did say “quicky guestimate” And it’s actually just a factor.

Also, it may change from higher to lower crude prices, I haven’t really analyzed it. Then there’s the inexplicable “global price” of gasoline...affected by other factors.

You can come up with your own number by comparing the pump price with the “stabilized” price per gallon of crude. Or better yet, go to the commodities exchange and get current unleaded gasoline and crude prices.