Posted on 11/24/2014 11:02:17 AM PST by blam
Claire Milhench
November 24, 2014
Oil prices could plunge to $60 a barrel if OPEC does not agree a significant output cut when it meets in Vienna this week, market players say.
Brent crude futures have fallen 34 percent since June to touch a four-year low of $76.76 a barrel on Nov. 14, and could tumble further if OPEC does not agree to cut at least 1 million barrels per day (bpd), commodity fund managers say.
"The market would question the credibility of OPEC and its influence on global oil markets if there was no cut," said Daniel Bathe, of Lupus alpha Commodity Invest Fund.
That could send Brent down to around $60, Bathe said.
"Herding behavior and a shift to net negative speculative positions should accelerate the price plunge," he added.
Fund managers are divided over whether OPEC will reach an agreement on cutting output. Bathe put the likelihood at no more than 50 percent.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
I thought they were targeting $68 a barrel, because that’s the price they think will cause the frackers to back off.
OPEC numbers (which include Libya):
Data for this Date Range July 31, 2014 32.16M June 30, 2014 31.86M May 31, 2014 31.82M April 30, 2014 31.94M March 31, 2014 31.82M Feb. 28, 2014 32.44M Jan. 31, 2014 32.31M Dec. 31, 2013 31.70M Nov. 30, 2013 31.50M Oct. 31, 2013 31.99M Sept. 30, 2013 31.95M Aug. 31, 2013 32.67M July 31, 2013 32.77M June 30, 2013 32.62M May 31, 2013 32.82M April 30, 2013 32.75M March 31, 2013 32.31M Feb. 28, 2013 32.14M Jan. 31, 2013 32.20M Dec. 31, 2012 32.38M Nov. 30, 2012 32.66M Oct. 31, 2012 32.72M Sept. 30, 2012 33.22M Aug. 31, 2012 33.55M July 31, 2012 33.29M
OPEC's October numbers:
June 30, 2012 33.39M May 31, 2012 33.29M April 30, 2012 33.75M March 31, 2012 33.49M Feb. 29, 2012 33.48M Jan. 31, 2012 33.12M Dec. 31, 2011 32.80M Nov. 30, 2011 32.50M Oct. 31, 2011 31.68M Sept. 30, 2011 32.05M Aug. 31, 2011 32.00M July 31, 2011 31.86M June 30, 2011 31.61M May 31, 2011 30.97M April 30, 2011 30.94M March 31, 2011 30.81M Feb. 28, 2011 31.98M Jan. 31, 2011 32.39M Dec. 31, 2010 31.81M Nov. 30, 2010 31.71M Oct. 31, 2010 31.45M Sept. 30, 2010 31.88M Aug. 31, 2010 31.85M July 31, 2010 31.80M June 30, 2010 31.78M
Supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has averaged 30.72 million bpd in October, down from a revised 30.84 million bpd in September, according to the survey based on shipping data and information from sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.In other words, the glut isn't coming from an increase in OPEC production.
"Based on recent stress tests of subprime borrowers in the energy sector in the US produced by Deutsche Bank, should the price of US crude fall by a further 20pc to $60 per barrel, it could result in up to a 30pc default rate among B and CCC rated high-yield US borrowers in the industry. West Texas Intermediate crude is currently trading at multi-year lows of around $75 per barrel, down from $107 per barrel in June. "
What’s not to like? I think OPEC deserves a real beat down after screwing the American people for the last 40 years.
I’d like to see them eat their oil.
The problem for the OPECers, is that they have done what so many others have. They spend. They need a continuing source of revenue. Perhaps they can suck it up and lower production. Remember, that lowered production will mean they make a lot less money, because the barrel price of what they do sell is so much lower than it was a few months ago.
$100 a barrel vs $70 a barrel...
They’ve already taken a 30% hit. Then to cut production too.
This may not be as easy to achieve as some folks might think.
We’ll see.
Their goal is to stop US production by undercutting them to the point they can’t stay in business.
I don’t think they’ll be able to pull it off this time.
They can't eat their oil....
But they certainly can drink it!
OPEC production is down 10% from its peak in April 2012, when the price was around $100. My guess is prices are down because of increases in non-OPEC production that finally glutted the market. At current prices, all producers have to pump more just to take in the same income. I would expect the glut to last for several years, at least. Oil prices had a great ramp from the early 70’s until the mid 80’s, peaking at ~$40 around 1979. Then they dove back down to $20 from the mid-1980’s until the late 1990’s, helping to super-charge the Clinton boom. The reason for the dive was the same as for every other commodity, over-investment in a sure thing, leading to a supply glut.
$60 oil will put Putey back in his box. :-)
The problem with that theory is that as soon as the prices rise enough to make fracking profitable again, the fracking starts again. Same way with high cost oil wells. When the price of oil is low, shut them down. When the cost goes back up, start them up again.
The problem for them, is that when the price levels out, and likely higher, production in the U. S. advances again.
I agree with you. They’re in trouble.
Brent crude futures have fallen 34 percent since June to touch a four-year low of $76.76 a barrel on Nov. 14, and could tumble further if OPEC does not agree to cut at least 1 million barrels per day (bpd), commodity fund managers say.
I am confused. Lower oil costs are a good thing unless you are a liberal (because then "green" energy can't compete). Wait a minute! If you are liberal, and the price of oil is less, then the evil "Big Oil" companies don't make as much money, right? Awsome! But wait! Now that America is a world power oil producer, higher oil prices will make us rich... I mean the American Oil Companies rich.... That's no good. So we want those evil oil companies to feel the pain of lost profits, Right? I mean, wait... Yea, I like lower gas prices. It saves me more of my hard earned money. I better check with Nancy Pelosi to see what I think of this.
Can the Saudi's save us all by lowering their production and getting the oil back to $125/barrel and +$4/gallon for Americans? What about the shale? Can we afford to produce oil from shale if it gets too cheap? When will we run out of fuel if the prices stay this low? We'll use to much oil and run the planet out.
I better go get some gas!
(Confused & panicked sarcasm)
I remember reading, back over a year or so, that the large investment banks had begun taking futures positions in oil because of the high price and seemingly effortless price support in world markets. The investment banks intervention in the market helped to sustain the higher than normal price levels. I’m wondering if the falling prices indicate they have stopped being competitors in a falling commodities market, leaving the remaining bidders among those who actually convert the product.
Filled up in NC at $2.529 yesterday. Wife texted a picture of a SC station sign at $2.399 today.
My wife’s mean like that...
Actually, The Gear Page is a forum for musicians. It attracts liberals, and they're truly ig'nant.
Especially the Saudis. I hope oil drops low enough so that, that snake pit implodes. Complete with the collapse of their satanic monarchy.
"How low can and will oil prices go, and what will the effects of those prices be? I bet you’ll have a hard time finding even just two people who have the same opinion on that. Not that it’s merely a matter of opinion, mind you, there are a great number of real life factors that come into play. It’s not an easy game."
Why Crude Oil $80 Is the New Normal, Reasons Saudi Arabia Will Not “Swing”
"Now the dust from the Shock & Awe of the 30% drop in oil prices has started to settle, two things are clear: (a) Saudi Arabia did not engineer anything (b) they don’t have a Machiavellian plan to stick one up the wildcatters in North Dakota, or the Russians...the Iranians...the Venezuelans, or even the genius from the Daily Telegraph who was bemoaning the fact that if oil prices go down it will be hard to import inflation into U.K. Here are five good reasons why they are going to pass on the opportunity to slash their oil production by 30% so that other OPEC members can cheat and make a windfall, like they all did in 1987/8."
If gas goes to $60/barrel at least our pocket books will get a brief respite.
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