Absolutely true, we have a history to observe, they've been impotent for some time now for the reasons you provide.
For American shale plays, natural gas is the ace in the hole, natural gas prices are up significantly, while the price of crude has been declining.
Whatever the negative impact on American crude extraction, the positive effect of cheaper gasoline to consumers more than compensates.
Re: “For American shale plays, natural gas is the ace in the hole”
Not sure I agree.
In many USA shale formations natural gas is being flared off, mostly because the cost of recovery and transport makes it unprofitable.
Unless natural gas stays above $4.50 for an extended period, not just in the winter time, the natural gas revolution may have to wait.