interesting - have also read that there is a break point whereby if the cost would go below that point it would no longer be profitable to extract by fracking as they do in ND. Do you know what it is?
- just a curious ol’ octogenarian speaking
Keep in mind, there is no magic on/off price.
There are average prices, that vary by field, by company and by different locations in the same field.
Even at average break-even price, there is going to be growth in production, just slower growth than it was.
Estimates of what the average break-even price are, vary all over the place.
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Morgan Stanley said Eagle Ford break-even costs range from $30 to $60 a barrel. Most U.S. tight-oil reserves break even from $60 to $80, Barclays Plc (BARC) said in slides presented at the Argus European Crude Conference in Geneva last week.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-14/u-s-shale-oil-output-growing-even-as-prices-drop-eia.html
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late-2013 ($/bbl): Oil Basin - Breakeven Price
Eagle Ford $65
Bakken Core $75
Permian $80
Niobrara $80
Bakken Fringe $85
Utica $85
Mississippian $85
Cana Woodford $90
Ardmore Woodford $95
http://oilpro.com/q/432/oil-price-where-us-rig-count-would-decline
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Bernstein Research said this week that about a third of U.S. shale production would be uneconomical if oil prices were to fall to $80 per barrel.
MORNINGSTAR INC Our analysis suggests that the average breakeven for our E&P coverage is $70 per barrel
ROBERT W. BAIRD EQUITY RESEARCH
“We estimate $73 as the weighted average breakeven point for U.S. supply.”
Eagle Ford Liquids Rich $53
Wolfcamp North Midland $57
Bakken Core $61
Niobrara Extension $64
Eagle Ford Oil $65
Niobrara Core $68
Wolfcamp South Midland $75
Bakken Non Core $75
Texas Panhandle $81
Mississippi Lime $84
Barnett Combo $93
UBS INVESTMENT RESEARCH
EAGLE FORD $43.34
GOLDMAN SACHS
EAGLE FORD $80-$90
Several more at:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/23/idUSL3N0SH5N220141023