Posted on 11/10/2014 4:31:25 AM PST by afraidfortherepublic
For months, Louisiana Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu's re-election campaign was based on one simple pitch: Elect me to a fourth term, and I'll chair the Senate Energy Committee, and that means money, money, money for Louisiana. Landrieu's case for re-election was all about clout.
That was then. Now, as Landrieu heads to a Dec. 6 runoff with Republican challenger Rep. Bill Cassidy, Democrats have already lost control of the Senate — a reality that won't be affected by the outcome of the runoff. So while Landrieu still has a chance to win, one thing is absolutely certain: She will not chair the Senate Energy Committee. The entire rationale for her campaign collapsed on primary day.
That one fact has changed the campaign entirely. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which poured millions of dollars into Landrieu's cause, has cancelled planned advertising for the runoff. Outside pro-Democratic groups have pulled out, too. The energy that would have powered Landrieu's campaign, had it been critical for control of the Senate, has drained away as she struggles to find her footing.
But Republicans are struggling, too — with the temptation to assume the race is over. Recently, one top national Republican said the contest "is starting to look like a one-foot putt." The GOP's problem is far less serious than Landrieu's, but it's still a problem.
Certainly the numbers look bad for the incumbent. Cassidy, with 41 percent, and Republican rival Rob Maness, with 13 percent, won a combined total of 54 percent of the primary vote to Landrieu's 42 percent. Maness, who is out of the runoff, has endorsed Cassidy, posting to his Facebook page a picture of himself, Cassidy and their wives smiling at a post-election "double date" at a New Orleans restaurant. Maness will attend a "unity rally" for Cassidy in Baton Rouge Monday.
As Republicans unite, Landrieu is desperately trying to convince voters she can still win. Last Thursday, campaign manager Ryan Berni sent a memo to donors and other supporters trying to make the case for a Landrieu victory. Berni's main argument: "History is on our side."
"Mary has been in runoffs before, both in 1996 and 2002," Berni wrote. "In both of her previous runoff elections, Republicans candidates combined to take a majority of the votes cast in the jungle primary, and each time she improved her votes among white and black voters. In 2002, in particular, Republicans had a big win and President [George W.] Bush was at his peak approval ratings, yet Mary found a way to pull through."
Now, Berni claimed, even though the GOP is again over 50 percent, Cassidy cannot count on the support of Maness supporters. "Third-place finisher Colonel Rob Maness's supporters will not necessarily fall in line with wishy-washy Cassidy," Berni wrote. "His 14 percent showing shows just how little faith conservatives have in Cassidy." (Berni's memo was written before the very public Cassidy-Maness rapprochement.)
Landrieu has thrown away her I'll-have-clout campaign. Now, she is all about attacking Cassidy. She has chosen a new theme, "Where was Bill?" to allege that Cassidy has been absent from Louisiana's affairs at times when she was busy looking out for her home state.
Unfortunately for Landrieu, the "Where was Bill?' campaign stumbled out of the gate when Landrieu accused Cassidy of being missing in action during the Hurricane Katrina crisis. Her campaign tweeted: "WATCH: When Louisiana needed disaster aid, Mary stood up & fought for our state. But #WhereWasBill?" Landrieu's charge looked a little ridiculous when Cassidy, a physician, answered: "Mary Landrieu wants to know where I was during Hurricane Katrina? Setting up a surge hospital for refugees." Cassidy linked to an article in which he described his work setting up an emergency facility in an abandoned K-Mart in Baton Rouge.
Undaunted, Landrieu is pressing on. At a recent appearance, flanked by union supporters, she slammed Cassidy as "wishy-washy, unreliable, undependable, not sure who he is, not sure who he was, and not sure who he wants to be."
"All she is doing now is attacking," says one Louisiana Republican involved in the fight. "She's not talking about her clout anymore, she's trying to make Cassidy the enemy."
Landrieu faces a very tough electoral landscape. In his memo, Berni predicted that in the runoff Landrieu would attract a higher turnout among black voters and improve her showing among whites. While the former is possible, the latter seems highly unlikely. According to exit polls, Landrieu won just 18 percent of the white vote in the primary — too little to win in Louisiana. "She got below 20 percent of the white vote," says the Louisiana Republican. "I don't care how much she gets the base out, she can't improve her performance with the white vote. I don't think it helped when she went on TV calling Louisiana voters racist and sexist."
In contrast to Landrieu, Cassidy doesn't have a lot of problems. So far, at least, the national Republican Party remains committed to running ads on his behalf, and this week a large contingent of GOP workers is scheduled to arrive in Louisiana for get-out-the-vote efforts. Outside groups are also still up and running for Cassidy. "We haven't had this kind of ground force in Louisiana ever," says the Republican.
Still, GOP strategists with years of work in Louisiana are wary of declaring victory a month before the election. "We've been close to knocking Mary out before," says the Republican. "In 2002, Republicans had a big night in November, and December people sort of let their guard down and she was able to win. The point is, we can't take it for granted."
The fact is, the outlook for Cassidy looks very good. But it is also true that one-foot putts are occasionally missed. Despite all the factors in their favor, that is what Louisiana Republicans are trying to keep first in their mind between now and Dec. 6.
Bingo. The drama of the first election — that Landrieu was needed to balance the Republican wave — is gone.
How many Democrat voters will simply stay home, correctly concluding that their runoff vote is a waste of time? A third? Half? That 54-42 he gets from assuming everybody will vote the same way in the runoff will be more like 60-something to 30-something.
Ha! I saw what you did there.
Is that a quote, “laundered”? That would be cause for removal from office even now with just weeks to go in her term.
So do I. This woman has evaded getting voted out for many years.
Yes, screw that guy.
The polls and media kept showing the Arkansas senatoral race nearly tied — occasionally separated by 5 to 7 points.
After the votes were cast, Republican Tom Cotton won by 17% over Democrat Incumbent Mark Pryor. That was a MASSIVE defeat for an incumbent.
In the Lousiana run-off, if the Republican votes stay with Cassidy, he will win by 14%. That, too, would be a MASSIVE defet for an incumbent.
The biggest mistake any party or and candidate can make is to become over confident and to place too much credence in the polls.
Sen. Landrieu is still the entrenched incumbent in this race, and entrenched incumbents are ALWAYS difficult to unseat. She has been defying the odds in LA for a number of years now and should never be underestimated.
“I worry about Republican over-confidence.”
Combined with “MASSIVE ELECTION FRAUD”.
What you said.
Note the repeated use of the term “wishy washy”
The Landrieu Campaign has clearly polled and focus-grouped that term and sees it as having impact in her favor.
We’re overconfident? PULEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEZE! An article like this is the direct result of the author being contractually obliged to write every so often. Little Mary’s on her way a host job on MSNBC PERIOD!
Good news - I was talking Repubs in general (even some FReepers) when I mentioned many are willing to pay some lip service and consider it doing the job - it takes some get-out-in-the-community activism to do a real job.
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