Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Scientists Try to Predict Number of US Ebola Cases
abc ^ | 11/1/14 | mendoza

Posted on 11/01/2014 9:23:03 AM PDT by knak

Top medical experts studying the spread of Ebola say the public should expect more cases to emerge in the United States by year's end as infected people arrive here from West Africa, including American doctors and nurses returning from the hot zone and people fleeing from the deadly disease.

But how many cases?

No one knows for sure how many infections will emerge in the U.S. or anywhere else, but scientists have made educated guesses based on data models that weigh hundreds of variables, including daily new infections in West Africa, airline traffic worldwide and transmission possibilities.

This week, several top infectious disease experts ran simulations for The Associated Press that predicted as few as one or two additional infections by the end of 2014 to a worst-case scenario of 130.

"I don't think there's going to be a huge outbreak here, no," said Dr. David Relman, a professor of infectious disease, microbiology and immunology at Stanford University's medical school. "However, as best we can tell right now, it is quite possible that every major city will see at least a handful of cases."

(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: democrats; ebola; obama; obola
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-36 next last

1 posted on 11/01/2014 9:23:03 AM PDT by knak
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: knak
Huge outbreak?? Not the point.

We've got Ebloa in the USA for the first time in the history of our nation....and there's a pig-headed pr*** in the whitehouse who doesn't give a damn.

2 posted on 11/01/2014 9:26:16 AM PDT by Sacajaweau
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Sacajaweau

Won case of Øbola is Won Øbola too many, as that single Won, leads to lots of unnecessary Ebola.


3 posted on 11/01/2014 9:28:49 AM PDT by C210N (When people fear government there is tyranny; when government fears people there is liberty)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: knak

They will let us know once it is stamped out and they have a record of what cases there were...


4 posted on 11/01/2014 9:29:03 AM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: knak
"made educated guesses based on data models"

If the CDC is in any way involved, it wouldn't be a very educated guess. Pick any random number between zero and 320 million.

"predicted as few as one or two additional infections by the end of 2014 to a worst-case scenario of 130."

"The end of 2014" is, like, in two months! 130 Ebola cases would completely overwhelm the number of level four biocontainment beds in the US.

5 posted on 11/01/2014 9:30:03 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: knak

Not one case was necessary, if Obola and the Democrats had put in a travel bans.


6 posted on 11/01/2014 9:30:05 AM PDT by FreeAtlanta (Liberty or Big Government - you can't have both.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: knak

7 posted on 11/01/2014 9:30:21 AM PDT by UCANSEE2 (Lost my tagline on Flight MH370. Sorry for the inconvenience.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: knak
Which scientists ... the climate change ones ?

We're already dead and refuse to lie down and cover ourselves with dirt.

8 posted on 11/01/2014 9:30:23 AM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true .. I have no proof .. but they're true.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: knak

Given the myriad of unknowns, the people making these predictions are more like palm readers than scientists.


9 posted on 11/01/2014 9:30:49 AM PDT by freedomfiter2 (Brutal acts of commission and yawning acts of omission both strengthen the hand of the devil.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: knak

Will these ‘scientists’ be the same ones who predict Global Climate Change ?


10 posted on 11/01/2014 9:32:04 AM PDT by UCANSEE2 (Lost my tagline on Flight MH370. Sorry for the inconvenience.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: knak

“Top medical experts “

Defined as Three ABC Interns who have the key to the supply closet where the first aid kits are kept.


11 posted on 11/01/2014 9:34:13 AM PDT by UCANSEE2 (Lost my tagline on Flight MH370. Sorry for the inconvenience.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: knak

We already have the predictions made here, numbers like 139,000,000 million Americans, and 50 million, and 75% of the world’s population and so on.


12 posted on 11/01/2014 9:36:48 AM PDT by ansel12
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: freedomfiter2
Here is why they are having trouble giving an answer.


13 posted on 11/01/2014 9:38:00 AM PDT by UCANSEE2 (Lost my tagline on Flight MH370. Sorry for the inconvenience.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: knak

You are what you do. - “Stupid is as stupid does”


14 posted on 11/01/2014 9:41:12 AM PDT by VideoDoctor
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ansel12
We already have the predictions made here,

Those seem to be based on the notion that Americans will nurse their dying relatives at home, wash the dead, prevent authorities from reaching remote villages, etc. None of those thing apply here. The real estimates are bad enough, 100's dead, mainly first responders and HCWs, from something that is entirely preventable, namely letting in 150 potentially incubating victims each day.

15 posted on 11/01/2014 9:42:21 AM PDT by palmer (Thank you for your patience.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: knak; neverdem; ProtectOurFreedom; Mother Abigail; EBH; vetvetdoug; Smokin' Joe; Global2010; ...
Zero, according to Zero...


Bring out your dead! The Dark Man cometh! Bring out your dead! The Dark Man cometh! Bring out your......

(Since all records of obama's past were lost in a tragic boating accident and fire, no one can be certain that the guy in the red circle isn't him...)

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

16 posted on 11/01/2014 9:46:05 AM PDT by null and void (And I think Kevin Bacon is doomed.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: knak

Ignoring the death and bodily injury, if they have to shut down ERs or wings or even entire hospitals for Ebola patients, this could be a big mess.


17 posted on 11/01/2014 9:46:44 AM PDT by PghBaldy (12/14 - 930am -rampage begins... 12/15 - 1030am - Obama's advance team scouts photo-op locations.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: palmer
letting in 150 potentially incubating victims each day.

The Muslim-in-Chief is taking care of business on behalf of the Terrorists.

18 posted on 11/01/2014 9:50:11 AM PDT by VideoDoctor
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: 2ndreconmarine; Fitzcarraldo; Covenantor; Mother Abigail; EBH; Dog Gone; ...
Ping...

A link to this thread has been posted on the Ebola Surveillance Thread

19 posted on 11/01/2014 9:52:30 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: PghBaldy

OK, I just saw a CDC quote from the article. Now, they are trying to get us to accept the inevitably of “clusters” of US cases... Ugh.


20 posted on 11/01/2014 9:53:40 AM PDT by PghBaldy (12/14 - 930am -rampage begins... 12/15 - 1030am - Obama's advance team scouts photo-op locations.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-36 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson