Maybe. Maybe not. Kansas is insane. The media has been demonizing Kobach non-stop for years now -- the equivalent of daily free campaign ads for the Democrats.
Big problem with polls, especially those in KS, plenty folk no longer have land lines so never polled and not counted in the mix.
Lastly, and no small thing, Kansans, especially dislike Obama and all that he stands for!
Even my mushy women friends, who only want "nice talk, no mean ads, if you please," while they watch Oprah, loathe and detest Obama!