“It strikes me as more than a little odd when I see polls indicating a Republican is leading amongst Republicans AND Independents, and yet manages to lose to a Democrat.”
Well, you have to take into account the numbers of each group in the state. If the state is overwhelmingly democrat, and a there are few republicans and independents, it’s not going to matter if a candidate leads in the other two groups. The democrat will win.
True. Although, I believe, there aren’t any states left where Dem registration is over 50% - hence if you have a majority of GOP & Indy voters, which would add up to more than 50% of the electorate, something doesn’t smell right if said GOP candidate loses.