“Declines are much steeper in the big new U.S. fields like the Bakken and Eagle Ford, where a well might come on line at 1,200 bpd, but lose half of that within four months.”
What these guys fail to see is that this tight oil, albeit at relatively low oil volumes, has very, very low decline rates after the wells are mature.
The tighter the oil, the more modest the decline. Only INITIAL declines are steep.
Think of it this way: in a few years, there will be 12,000 wells producing 50 bopd with less than a 5% decline to use as a base production for the next 50 years.
That is an annuity that is nice to have.
But the majority of our current tight production, has not reached that level of maturity. We would lose a lot from the current total production without another decade or so more new wells in these formations.
Click chart for source:
Development of the Bakken Resource
The Bakken/Three Forks Shale Oil Innovation Conference & Expo
Grand Forks, ND–February 11, 2014
page 32