Its wrong to think of ISIS as a unified organization. The jihadists in Syria are not the same fighters active in Iraq. ISIS in Iraq are disgruntled Sunnis, ex Republican guards and old Saddam regime officials who are providing the administrative infrastructure. They are attempting to reestablish a Sunni dominant state, wrest control from and again dominate the Shi’ites. Iran will be forced to intervene or a very hostile Sunni state will be reestablished on its border and many Shi’ites will be massacred. This current fight in Iraq is best viewed in the context of the ancient Sunni/Shi’ite conflict. Best if the US does not get involved. The locals will have to reach their own consensus. Also this is not 1974. There will never again be an oil embargo. Oil producers are desperate to sell to anyone with hard currency or they will wither.
That strikes me as a very sound analysis. IN fact, ISIS was formed by the merger of Al Qaeda in Iraq and Obama’s beloved “freedom fighters” in Syria. But I would note that although they come from two origins, ISIS as a STATE relies on being Iraqi AND Syrian.