I’m not worried about South Dakota. It’s a three-way race and Rounds has a double-digit lead. It should be a Republican pickup.
At the end of the day, it’s going to come down to whether the Republicans perform as they should in Georgia, Arkansas and Louisiana (runoff) and win two of the four “tossups” in Alaska, Iowa, Colorado and Kansas.
Alaska looks like it’s in the R column, which gets us to 50. Iowa looks promising. Colorado can go either way. Kansas looks like it may be drifting away.