[cuban leaf]

What if it’s carried to every corner of the world but less than 10,000 die?

[jpsb]

Are you any good at math? If so, the infection rate (how many people an infected person infects) for Ebola is about 1.8. That means that each victim of Ebola on average infects and additional 1.8 people. The mortality rate of Ebola (without world care health care) is about 50%. The complete Ebola cycle (infection, incubation, symptomatic, recovery/death) takes about 30 days.

Now all you have to do it the math! Since I like math I'll do a few computations just for fun.

Lets say we have 5 infections on day 1.
On day 31 we have (5 * 1.8 = 9) 9 infected people and (5/2) 2.5 (call it 2) dead victims.
On day 61 we have (9 * 1.8 = 16.2) 16 infected people and total of 6 dead victims (2 + (9/2))
On day 91 you have about 30 infected and about 14 dead. You see how this works?

Right now there are about 7,000 infected and about 3,200 dead. So do the math and see what the numbers should be for Nov 1, 2014. Or calculate the date when fatality should exceed 10,000.

Hopefully the Rate of Infection in the US will be lower (much lower) then 1.8. But anything over 1.0 is bad bad news.