Posted on 10/02/2014 11:02:00 PM PDT by Ray76
Sep 23, 2014
The World Health Organization has released a new study warning that the situation is quickly growing worse.
The new study by WHO experts and scientists at Imperial College London, published today by The New England Journal of Medicine (http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1411100), is "excellent" because it fills some important gaps, says Preben Aavitsland, a Norwegian epidemiologist. “For instance, the study gives an average length of hospital stay of 6.4 days,” he says. That is important to know, because it means that about as many beds are needed as there are new Ebola cases every week. It also means that tens of thousands of beds will be needed by the end of November, Aavitsland says. “It’s completely unclear where those beds and the people to staff them will come from.”
The authors have also estimated the reproductive rate of the virus in each country, which represents the average number of people that each infected person in turn infects. It ranges from 1.38 in Sierra Leone to 1.51 in Liberia to 1.81 in Guinea. That means cases are roughly doubling every 2 weeks in Guinea, every 3 weeks in Liberia, and every month in Sierra Leone, says Christl Donnelly, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London and one of the study's authors. “The big thing is that we are still seeing exponential growth and that needs to be stopped.”
The CDC in Atlanta, meanwhile, released a new model for the spread of the deadly virus. Its worst-case scenario estimates that up to 1.4 million people could be infected by the end of January. If control efforts are stepped up in a truly dramatic fashion and prove a stunning success, however, the epidemic could be almost over by that time. CDC has also released the model as an Excel spreadsheet (http://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/24900)
(Excerpt) Read more at news.sciencemag.org ...
Nobody really has a handle yet on how to stop the spread in the bad countries and even in the U.S. we screw up handling the basics of identification and isolation.
We screwed up when we allowed travel from West Africa to the US.
Even if they were US citizens.
“Nobody really has a handle yet on how to stop the spread in the bad countries and even in the U.S. we screw up handling the basics of identification and isolation”
We know how to to stop spread, we are just to PC to implement.
When everyone went thru Ellis Island( or should have) people were screened- if you did not pass screening you did not get admitted.
There is no hard evidence whatsoever that the rate of growth of the epidemic is slowing significantly. And only 40% of the actual cases are reported.
If it gets that bad in Africa, it will be in Europe and Asia. And it will hardly matter if we're screening flights from Africa. If there's any travel whatsoever with Europe or Asia we'll be screwed too.
why do I have this suspicion that won’t go away that this ebola situation was not all by accident.
True, but at this point we're approaching the need to go to shoot-to-kill quarantines and letting whole African cities burn out. It'll soon be too big to do the "Outbreak" style fuel-air bombing. And nobody will use nukes.
At this point we probably can't isolate ourselves effectively even if we cut travel from West Africa, because it's starting to show up elsewhere.
The only way to stop the spread will be wholesale quarantines.
I do not think any politician will want to do quarantines- so get ready for the epedemic
It was no accident. Bringing the disease to this country allows the communists here to get rid of white conservative Christians. Remember that they are enemies of the state.
The critical determinant of epidemic size appears to be the speed of implementation of rigorous control measures.Quarantines ("case isolation") are critical to containing the epidemic.Forward projections suggest that unless control measures — including improvements in contact tracing, adequate case isolation, increased capacity for clinical management, safe burials, greater community engagement, and support from international partners — improve quickly, these three countries will soon be reporting thousands of cases and deaths each week, projections that are similar to those of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa — The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections
New England Journal of Medicine
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1411100
Well, we have a hundred - probably more - potential exposures in Dallas. Any idea how many are likely to actually develop the disease?
The Obama Regime- IGnore this ebola and entovirus...the border is open come in all!
No worries, Obama is in charge.
This must truly be the end of times. Iran wants the return of the 12th Imam with the help of nuclear weapons, ISIS wants a caliphate, Obama and his administration allow open borders to hasten the transmision of disease and pestulance and wants the people to scream for the government to help them.
You’ve got to wonder — just never seen things so bad as they are now —we’re on the precipice of so many total disasters Injust want to go slink off to the woods, learn to survive and never return to this world .....
My 42 year old niece is very down about this. She is so upset at what has been done to the American people. It is even worse than abuse.
Obama is now literally killing us.
And like she says “no one is doing anything about it”.
A link to this thread has been posted on the Ebola Surveillance Thread
I haven’t heard any projections....But people on this board are going to get into a frenzy the moment where one of the family members in this situation come down with the virus. If it is just contained within that family, I think this vector will zero out...But after watching the apartment complex cleaning crew spray wash the vomit....if anyone comes down with it (cleaning crew, Fire/EMS team member, Hospital Staff, flight crew, random person, etc...then this is going to be a rough winter...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.