Right now, Dems have a 55-45 edge in the Senate.
Most polls show West Virginia, South Dakota, and Montana as off the charts in polling, in favor of the GOP. That gets it to 52-48.
So then, the GOP needs 3 more after the above states to get a 51-49 advantage and control of the Senate.
According to some polls I have seen, eight Senate races are too close to call. The GOP would need three of those 8 to gain control.
Year Six of a presidential administration normally yields good pickups for the other party. If the GOP doesn’t blow it, things should fall into place for them.
I think that yours is a good analysis, but I would say that the Republicans probably need to pick up about 3 more if they are to retain control in 2016.
Is anyone factoring in that the ‘pubs could lose seats they hold, for instance Mississippi and Kansas? I’m not convined the party base is ready to vote for candidates who’ve been in battle with constitutional conservatives.