Posted on 09/22/2014 2:25:40 PM PDT by scouter
I already know that these numbers do not predict the future. I know that there is no way Ebola will kill 2 billion people in Liberia alone. I know that at some point the pool of uninfected people will decrease enough to slow the spread of the disease. I know that the rate of transmission will change based on weather, location, effectiveness of treatment, etc., etc., etc. I know that epidemics "don't work this way". Nevertheless, it is helpful to know what the projected numbers say to get an idea of the severity of the epidemic, why the authorities are responding the way they are, and whether or not it's time to make personal preparations.
Please re-read paragraph 1.
One of the comments in the last thread I posted about the epidemic suggested taking a look at the numbers, broken down by country. Since the data are readily available, I did just that. It reveals some very interesting facts.
It seems the epidemic has been stopped in its tracks in both Nigeria and Senegal. There have been no new cases reported for several weeks in those two countries.
In Sierra Leone the Daily Transmission Rate (DTR) since September 1 is 2.312%. In other words, the epidemic is increasing in size each day by 2.312%. For every 1,000 cases today, there will be 1023 cases tomorrow. If the epidemic continues to grow at this rate, there will be over 19,000 cases in Sierra Leone by the end of the year, and over 300,000 by the end of April.
In Guinea, the DTR since September 1 is 1.413%. Quite a bit lower than in Sierra Leone, but still increasing. If the epidemic continues to grow at this rate, there will be over 4,200 cases by the end of the year, and over 22,600 by the end of April.
The growth of the epidemic as a whole seriously masks the gravity of the situation in Liberia. The DTR in Liberia since September 1 is 3.669%. That means that for every 1,000 cases reported as of today there will be 1,037 cases tomorrow. This is a huge increase, and projected into the future, that rate of transmission would lead to over 132,800 cases in Liberia alone by the end of December, and over 1,000,000 (that's right... over 1 million) in Liberia by the end of February. Yes, I know that is highly unlikely. Please re-read Paragraph 1.
Keep in mind that generally speaking, only active cases (and the unburied dead) transmit the disease. Men who have recovered can also spread the disease through their semen for several months. So if we remove those who have died, along with some portion of the survivors, then what we're seeing is 107 new infections per day from about 1,000 active cases.
Also, don't forget that the epidemiologists all agree that the reported cases represent only 1/4 to 1/2 of the true size of the epidemic.
As of the most recently reported date, Liberia is experiencing about 107 new cases per day. By the end of December, with the current rate of transmission, this would grow to over 4,700 new cases per day.
Here are the numbers for Liberia:
Scouter Ebola Projection Model Version 2.1 - Ebola Case Projections
*********************************************************
Projection Parameters
*********************************************************
Country: Liberia
Run Date/Time: 09/22/2014 at 14:10:37
Model: DTR Model
Start Date: 9/1/2014
End Date: 9/17/2014
Reported cases represent 100% of the true epidemic size
New Cases per Day at End of Period: 107
Rate of Increase per Day: 3.67%
*********************************************************
Weekly for the Next 8 Weeks
Date Cases Deaths Daily New Cases Daily New Deaths
========== ==================== ==================== ==================== ====================
09/17/2014 3,022 2,746 107 97
09/24/2014 3,889 3,534 138 125
10/01/2014 5,004 4,547 177 161
10/08/2014 6,440 5,852 228 207
10/15/2014 8,287 7,531 293 266
10/22/2014 10,665 9,691 377 343
10/29/2014 13,724 12,471 486 441
11/05/2014 17,661 16,048 625 568
End of Month for the Next Year from the End Date
Date Cases Deaths Daily New Cases Daily New Deaths
========== ==================== ==================== ==================== ====================
09/30/2014 4,827 4,386 171 155
10/31/2014 14,749 13,402 522 474
11/30/2014 43,470 39,500 1,538 1,398
12/31/2014 132,819 120,689 4,700 4,271
01/31/2015 405,814 368,751 14,361 13,049
02/28/2015 1,112,888 1,011,248 39,383 35,786
1. Re-read Paragraph 1.
2. Draw your own.
Nice work.
bttt
‘World losing battle with Ebola’ – Doctors Without Borders Chief.
24 minute long interview...Info about Liberia and the dramatic increase in number of cases.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6EVr7udRkpc
I heard it’s also spread to Somalia. Any data on that country (large Muslim population).
I noticed the Saudi’s haven’t cancelled the Hajj, so there could be a huge amount of people exposed on their way to Mecca.
Ball park estimates are often helpful.
That’s interesting.
I wonder what is being done in countries that have a handle on this as opposed to those that don’t.
Nice stuff.
But that’s not how outbreaks work. (just kidding. Really. I read paragraph 1.)
send all of the infected ones to Mecca for treatment
Saudi Arabia: Pilgrims Being Tested For Ebola At Jeddah Airport
September 22, 2014
Pilgrims arriving at Saudi Arabia’s King Abdulaziz International Airport (KAIA) are being screened, tested and given preventive medication against the Ebola virus.
Fahd Al-Ghazwi, supervisor of the preventive center at the airport, told a local newspaper that a medical team wearing protective clothing “examines pilgrims who have flown in for Haj, especially pilgrims coming from West Africa.”
Passengers are required to fill out medical forms and are administered medication as soon as they disembark from their flights.
Excerpted
http://www.eurasiareview.com/22092014-saudi-arabia-pilgrims-tested-ebola-jeddah-airport/
Interesting. Thanks. Health/life BUMP!
IF YOU HAVE EBOLA IT WILL GO ON YOUR PERMANENT RECORD!
"Liberia, together with the other hard-hit countries, namely Guinea and Sierra Leone, is experiencing a phenomenon never before seen in any previous Ebola outbreak. As soon as a new Ebola treatment facility is opened, it immediately fills to overflowing with patients, pointing to a large but previously invisible caseload."
Clearly your comment on unreported cases is well-supported by the evidence.
Also, WHO has not released a formal Global Alert and Response "Disease Outbreak News: Ebola Virus Disease" with September data for West Africa, just for the Democratic Republic of Congo. Previous updates came at least weekly and usually more ferequently. http://who.int/csr/don/archive/disease/ebola/en/. I am not sure what this means, but I suspect it means something.
What praytell, medication would that be? lol.
I have not seen evidence that any existing antivirals are effective in the least and would be very expensive to give to everybody anyway.
And no one ever lied on a form. //sarcasm
And no one ever lied on a form. //sarcasm
How has your model changed since the 1.0 projection back on the 15th? I see the 2.1 model’s DTR has dramatically increased and the projected number of cases has dramatically decreased, or nearly half the number of projected cases for a 3.5x increase in DTR.
I outlined the changes in the following post: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3205753/posts.
Exactly. Hence my opening comment: “Given preventive medication against Ebola? I guess if someone will fall for the ideology that is called islam then they will fall for a medication that “prevents” ebola.”
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