Posted on 09/15/2014 5:17:10 PM PDT by UMCRevMom@aol.com
I do not agree with this view, but thought it was interesting.
GOOGLE TRANSLATION: Direction of impact- The purpose of the new sanctions the United States - is not so much to help Ukraine as a change of power in the Kremlin 15.09.2014
The new, fourth, round of American sanctions imposed on September 12 in parallel with the sanctions of the European Union has brought blacklisted Sberbank, "Gazprom" and forbade American companies to supply goods and services in the development and production of energy resources in the Arctic deep-water drilling and oil shale technology . The latter makes it impossible to implement the agreement concluded in 2011 companies Exxon Mobil and "Rosneft", to jointly develop the Arctic shelf. Major shareholder of "Rosneft" is BP Plc (18,5%, according to Thomson Reuters). This year, BP signed an agreement with "Rosneft" the development of shale deposits in the Volga-Urals region. Western companies shall have 14 days to minimize activity. According to officials of the Obama administration, they do not get any penalties for breach of contract.
Sanctions applied to the company "Rosteh" - state-owned corporation, which produces a wide range of products: from Kalashnikovs to cars. Chapter "Rosteha" Chemezov already had been on the black list of the United States and the EU. American companies and private parties are prohibited from lending "Rosteha" and 6 Russian banks for a period exceeding 30 days. Previously, the 5 banks acted period - 90 days. Sberbank fell under American sanctions for the first time. For energy companies also tightened access to foreign financing - loan term is limited to 90 days.
In the United States blocked and assets 5 Russian defense enterprises: Mytischinskogo machine factory, machine-building plant. MI Kalinina, "Almaz-Antey", "Research Institute of Instrument" (NIIP), as well as the fact that the Americans referred to as OAO Dolgoprudny Research Production Enterprise - «Dolgoprudnenskoye Scientific-Production Enterprise".
In a special statement in connection with the announcement of a new round of sanctions, United States Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said: "As with all previous sanctions, the steps taken by us today, aimed at providing a significant pressure on the objects of sanctions while preserving as much as possible, the global financial markets and the world the economy. "
How not to stop stress in the United States and the European Union, sanctions could be stopped at any time and even canceled if Russia will take steps to normalize the situation in Ukraine. We are talking about the withdrawal of Russian troops (the presence of which the Kremlin has never recognized) from the territory of Ukraine, the creation of "buffer zones" along the border and so on.
"The energy component of the" American sanctions caused the greatest number of comments. Russia, which occupies the 2nd place among the world's largest oil-exporting countries, in addition to counting fields in Siberia to the Arctic resources to maintain stable export at 10.5 million barrels per day. As said on condition of anonymity told Reuters Obama administration official bans cooperation with Russian companies in the development of the Arctic shelf and deepwater and shale "designed to effectively close the oil exploration and production activity of Russian companies by depriving them of goods, technologies and services that are needed them for this purpose. " Exxon Mobil - partner of "Rosneft", said he intends to comply with the new requirements of the Administration. Last month, a joint project was just launched, began drilling in the Kara Sea, the business partners welcome President Putin.
According to a senior staff member of the Washington Institute for International Economics Gary Clyde Hufbauer, the failure of the contract with Exxon Mobil "Rosneft" because of sanctions related to "force majeure". Maybe next year, if the political situation is normalized, the work under the contract will be renewed, the expert believes. But now, following the restrictions in the energy, financial, and military-industrial sectors, according to the economist, we should expect the widespread failure of Western companies to invest in the Russian economy. The expert believes that next year, when the economic impact of sanctions (and the "response" such as a ban on the import of food for the Russians - AP) fully will feel the population - Putin's popularity begins to fall. The only thing that could turn the tide in favor of the Russian leader - a significant increase in world oil prices. But this will not happen, says American economist, due to the rapid development of shale technology in the next 1-2 years. There is another point of view, but more on that later.
While American sanctions have not touched the Russian energy companies engaged in the extraction of the continental gas and oil, they are not covered by the space industry and the nuclear power industry. However, the Russian carrier rocket heavy class "Proton-M", which is used for commercial launches of American and European communications satellites (for most startups need special permission of the State Department), could be the next "victim of sanctions" if anything in the east of Ukraine will not change. The process, they say, "go." Especially going back to "Proton", the Russian missile may soon have an alternative - American Falcon, produced by a private corporation Space-X.
According to Russian analysts, which added the former prime minister, Sergei Stepashin, the purpose of the new sanctions is not so much to help Ukraine as a change of power in the Kremlin. A version of one of the officials in Washington hardly ever Recog- and a. Here emphasize that sanctions against Russia "reversible", they can be easily stopped.
The President of Russia has called the sanctions "strange", as they came into force at the time of the armistice in eastern Ukraine. In Washington, however, believe that it is essential that the sanctions failed to agree a coordinated way and to introduce them, despite the fact that the EU lacked the doubters. Europe is paying a much higher price for the failure of cooperation with Russia, than Americans. I wonder: will be called if the Kremlin "strange" proposal of the Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev (by the way, was once a member of the reformist "team" Gaidar) to cover losses sanctions Russian state-owned companies at the expense of citizens' pension savings?
"On the one hand, Putin won a geopolitical victory and can drink champagne Crimea became part of Russia, in the east of Ukraine reached a cease-fire, and separatists seem to achieve the special status of the region. Putin has shown that in a big game he is ready to risk much - said Washington economist Gary Clyde Hufbauer. - On the other hand, Russia is paying for his actions more economic price. Firstly, the economy of the Crimea completely destroyed, and Russian taxpayers have to pay for it, to keep it as something alive. Second separatists occupied eastern Ukraine was subsidized area even before the current crisis. Recovery of coal and steel industries will require a lot of money. For political gamble will pay the Russians again. Third Russian financial institutions, businesses, and especially Russian energy companies in need of Western investments and modern technologies for the development of deposits, including shale, drilling in the Arctic, and so on, feel the price of sanctions right now. "
But, say American experts, there is a danger that the new Western sanctions can only rally the masses around the Russian "national leader". In terms of total control over television and major media dystopia Orwell described Strugatsky and, in today's Russia can become a reality. And then sanctions, causing irreparable damage to the Russian economy, is unlikely to change Russian politics.
Alexander Panov
~But, say American experts, there is a danger that the new Western sanctions can only rally the masses around the Russian “national leader”. ~
They say it like if such a sanctions ever worked the other way.
No one in Russia is going to change policies because of Western sanctions. If there is a price to be paid for upholding Russia’s national interests, they’re seen as a necessary evil.
By the time the sanctions damage the Russia economy, the West will be hurt as well. Russia is not going to stop being involved in Ukraine because its an important country bordering Russia. It wants to see a neutral and friendly government there. Short of that it fully intends to make life difficult for Kiev.
And there is not much the West can do to counter it.
It is not if I’m impartial but I find these sanctions a hypocrisy for a reason that the West is claiming they want Russia to reform for more freedom but every step indicates it is a lie.
Even before Ukraine there were Western-supported NGOs in Russia who declared they are for freedom, human rights and against corruption but if you would see into them they were all a set of communists and nazis plotting to overthrow government which actually did more than them for reforms.
Countering aggressive tactics of these groups already contributed to a certain losses in freedoms in Russia which I can’t support, and now with these sanctions and growing support for the government it has free hands to go further or team with anti-western forces who aren’t friends of freedom.
I might be wrong of course but it certainly seems that the West is not a friend of freedom in Russia but doing best to revert it to old practices.
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