Posted on 08/28/2014 7:07:05 AM PDT by Covenantor
Ebola virus disease update, West Africa - update 28 August 2014
Epidemiology and surveillance
The total number of probable and confirmed cases in the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the four affected countries as reported by the respective Ministries of Health of Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone is 3 069, with 1 552 deaths.
The outbreak continues to accelerate. More than 40% of the total number of cases have occurred within the past 21 days. However, most cases are concentrated in only a few localities.
The overall case fatality rate is 52%. It ranges from 42% in Sierra Leone to 66% in Guinea. A separate outbreak of Ebola virus disease, which is not related to the outbreak in West Africa, was laboratory-confirmed on 26 August by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and is detailed in a separate edition of the Disease Outbreak News: Disease Outbreak News: Ebola virus disease in Democratic Republic of Congo
Health sector response
A full understanding of the outbreak that will lead to improved response requires detailed analysis of exactly where transmission is occurring (by district level) and of time trends. This analysis is ongoing. Preliminary results show that cases are still concentrated (62% of all reported cases since the beginning of the outbreak) in the epicentre of the outbreak in Gueckedou (Guinea); Lofa (Liberia), where cases continue to rise; and Kenema and Kailahun (Sierra Leone). Capital cities are of particular concern, owing to their population density and repercussions for travel and trade.
WHO and its partners are on the ground establishing Ebola treatment centres and strengthening capacity for laboratory testing, contact tracing, social mobilization, safe burials, and non-Ebola health care.
WHO continues to monitor for reports of rumoured or suspected cases from countries around the world and systematic verification of these cases is ongoing. Countries are encouraged to continue engaging in active surveillance and preparedness activities. Cases of EVD have been reported from the Democratic Republic of Congo. The cases in DRC are not related to the outbreak in West Africa. Outside of the four affected countries in West Africa and DRC, no new cases have been confirmed in other countries.
WHO does not recommend any travel or trade restrictions be applied except in cases where individuals have been confirmed or are suspected of being infected with EVD or where individuals have had contact with cases of EVD. (Contacts do not include properly-protected health-care workers and laboratory staff.) Temporary recommendations from the Emergency Committee with regard to actions to be taken by countries can be found at: IHR Emergency Committee on Ebola outbreak in west Africa
Disease update
As of 26 August 2014, the cumulative number of cases attributed to EVD in the four countries stands at 3 069, including 1 552 deaths.
The distribution and classification of the cases are as follows:
Guinea, 647 cases (482 confirmed, 141 probable, and 25 suspected), including 430 deaths;
Liberia, 1 378 cases (322 confirmed, 674 probable, and 382 suspected), including 694 deaths;
Nigeria, 17 cases (13 confirmed, 1 probable, and 3 suspected), including 6 deaths; and
Sierra Leone, 1 026 cases (935 confirmed, 37 probable, and 54 suspected), including 422 deaths.
(Full break down chart at url)
Nothin’ to see here, move along folks, just news from WHO
Yup.
Whole villages are completely empty in the hinterlands.
Which meets the Agenda 21 population control mandate perfectly...
Bring Out Your Dead
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
The really important news will be if this virus mutates and is transmitted via aerosolized infected materials or by a pneumonic process. If that happens a bubonic like plague will commence. If not it will remain a deadly endemic disease.
The fatality rates are artificially low. The calculations include new infections that simply haven’t time to run their course.
If you look at the death rate of people who have been infected for three weeks, it’s closer to 80%.
If the virus mutates,then the elites will sit up and take notice.Losing a few thousand third worlders is nothing,but if it should threaten those in power.....
Question:
Are dogs considered bush meat?
Asking because ebola is zoonotic. Bat guano on fruit, leaves to monkeys and primates. Other carrion eaters, vultures, hyenas, etc. Could be a whole new kind of ugly that only an eco-nut would like.
I don’t know if dogs are considered bushmeat.
I do know one of the carrier species in central Africa is a type of antelope or deer.
Imagine if this kind of disease were carried in Whitetail deer in the US. Lots of US bushmeat hunters would be in hot water...Venison is technically bushmeat. As are doves, rabbits, squirrels, and the wild pigs.
That’s what I was saying a few weeks ago. Buncha hooters said that I didn’t understand the data.
Looking closer to 80%. Buried in the sudden flood of media on the ground are the nunbers provided by the HCW.
Another unquantifyable factor is the surge in education efforts and the hard reality of ebola bringing forth more possible patients at earlier symptom stage. How many are malaria or other illnesses.
Most of them on the PFI forum of the past few days.
If it is airborne it will be exactly the opposite of the bubonic plague. Bubonic plague requires an insect vector (fleas that live on rodents) and is not directly passed person to person. Get rid of the rodents, problem solved. And there is no danger to those caring for infected patients.
Airborne ebola would be orders of magnitude worse. We would see something similar to the spanish flu in the early 20th century or even worse, and would have a true pandemic with high mortality rates.
I think in some areas anything that doesn’t move fast enough is considered bushmeat. Including bats, monkeys, antelope and birds.
According to the book Hot Zone some of the earliest cases probably caught it from one of the above animals.
“I think in some areas anything that doesn’t move fast enough is considered bushmeat.”
Ever met Cajuns?
You are wrong. Rodents were the initial vector but when pastuerella pestis was spread pneumonically the real epidemic began. People coughed , while congregating in places to pray or shop and the real devastation began.
I guess the Chinese have great plans of moving in after EVD burns itself out.
Really, who will wind up meeting the health care needs of the people who are left? The medical people who have not been killed off will be hesitant, I suspect, to care for the diseased.
That is pneumonic plague. Very different from bubonic plague. Pneumonic plague is usually spread through cats or dogs these days, although can be spread from person to person.
Yep, but I’m not sure a Cajun will eat a bat or a monkey.
Gator or opossum are fair game though.
Probably not monkey. But if bat wings made good gumbo that might be a possibility.
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