Two Myths Associated With U.S. Shale Oil

Forbes ^ | 8/12/2014 | Steve Banker

[thackney]

Myth Number 1: The U.S. is approaching energy independence.

There is no doubt we are in the midst of a shale oil revolution. But the growth of production has led to reporting that might charitably be described as overly optimistic. In fact, the Wall Street Journal reported today, in an article entitled Democrats Warming to the Energy Industry, “Since March 2008, oil production has increased 58% and natural-gas output has risen 21%, making the U.S. the world’s largest producer of both fuels, according to federal and international agency statistics.”

I don’t know which federal statistics that reporter was looking at. I went to the U.S. Energy Information Agency website, and found, that as I suspected, Saudia Arabia is the world’s top oil producer. The U.S. is number two. The U.S. is the number one producer of natural gas. And the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) is right in that there has been a dramatic increase in production. The Energy Information Agency (EIA) is showing growth of about 21% in billions of cubic feet of natural gas produced between 2008 and 2013, and 43% growth in oil as measured by thousands of barrels produced per day, a growth rate somewhat lower than the WSJ is reporting.

But what the WSJ, and many others reporting on this topic are missing, is just how far away from energy independence the U.S. really is. OilVoice published an article where the author, Gail Tverberg, takes EAI data for oil and natural gas production, converts barrels of oil and billions of cubic feet of natural gas into quadrillions of BTUs per year produced and consumed by the U.S (through 2013)...

Myth Number 2: Our lack of pipelines has led to Rail becoming the most important mode for moving oil.

[thackney]

Excerpted for Forbes

links to related info at the source

[Flintlock]

No thanks to barry’s boys.

[Memphis Moe]

Doubters, especially “experts” have doubted the shale revolution. But over the past few years US crude production increased from 5 million barrels a day to 8 million per day.

The greens, the soccer moms, the Saudis, and the Dems HATE the shale revolution and are doing everything they can to stop it. Why? Because more domesticly produced oil benefits Americans.

[CPT Clay]

Wow, Banker got paid to write this article which says nothing. His first point is a quibble. 2012 we were just behind Saudi Arabia. I believe that the increase in production from Eagle Ford is enough to put us over the top. He should have gone more into defense of the “self sufficiency” myth. We consume 24 mbd and produce 12. I wasn't really aware of myth 2. Keystone will subdue that.

[Buckeye McFrog]

Very strong and growing rumors here in PA that if Tom Wolf gets elected Governor in November, most of the major shale players will be pulling out of the state.

[thackney]

2012 we were just behind Saudi Arabia.

In 2012, the US produced 6.5 MMBPD of crude oil.

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=a

In 2012, Saudi Arabia produced over 9.8 MMBPD of crude oil.

http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=53&aid=1&cid=SA,&syid=2010&eyid=2013&unit=TBPD

Beware of statistics that count natural gas & natural gas liquids in the comparisons.

In 2013, it was SA = 9.7 MMBPD and the US = 7.5 MMBPD

[thackney]

Not looking too good. What is driving his support?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/pa/pennsylvania_governor_corbett_vs_wolf-3535.html

[bestintxas]

I agree with article and its conclusions.

Shale oil is overhyped as the panacea for energy for this country.

It is short lived and, in the scheme of things, just a blip.
Should be used vigorously to frighten OPEC while US is enjoying its fruits.

The real deal is Shale Gas. That boom will last many generations for us Americans. Lots of it and it is so cheap compared to oil.

[DJ MacWoW]

Did You Know?

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Now That You Do, Donate And Keep FR Running

[Buckeye McFrog]

What is driving his support?

Corbett has alienated Conservatives. He did not fight a court ruling striking down our Voter ID law. He did not fight the ruling ordering us to accept gay marriage. And he signed a gigantic gas tax increase in order to "fully fund" our transportation systems. Plus he has been linked to some ethically dubious activities.

That plus PA voters seem intrinsically bred to buy into the populist line of B.S. that government needs to "make things fair for Da Workin' Man!" This very approach successfully elected that ambulatory vegetable Bob Casey to the Senate. Wolf is running around claiming that our schools and roads are crumbling because those EEEEEEVIL rich people aren't paying their "fair share". And sadly most voters seem to be buying that. "Why should you pay more to fix your schools, let those GRRRREEEEEDY shale frackers do it!"

Corbett's best defense is that as Ed Rendell's budget director, there was virtually nothing and nobody that Wolf had not proposed to tax more heavily.

When Republicans do really, really well in this state, it's because the Dems have been STOOOOPID enough to go down the Gun Control road again. A Pro-Life, Pro-Gun Democrat who was all in favor of using government to tilt the economic table in the direction of Da Workin' Man could win 25 consecutive terms in this state.

Fortunately there are virtually no more Pro-Life, Pro-Gun Democrats.

[thackney]

Thanks

[kitchen]

Natural gas is always cheap - until the power plants convert and they have the market cornered. Then the fun starts.

[thackney]

Natural gas is always cheap - until the power plants convert and they have the market cornered.

How would that be different from coal in the past?

There are too many suppliers of Natural Gas, it is a very competitive market, which is what has driven the price low with the new shale supplies.

[SierraWasp]

“bobthenailer” where are you? I miss your commentary on the natural gas industry!! Where the (bleep) are you??? Stick yer head back up in here with us FReepers!!!

[kitchen]

How would that be different from coal in the past?

Most all coal sales have been either long term - up to 30 years - or spot. In either case there's no room to raise prices capriciously because there is always a trainload or two ready to ship from the competition. Every mine is in a cutthroat race for market share.

As an aside, natural gas providers have a history of working together. Consider their shared use of pipelines. They also join hands to bankroll things like the 10 year program in Denver, sending armies of brain dead green weenies door to door gathering signatures to petition the local power plant to convert from that dirty, nasty, black coal to the clean, green natural gas.

If a power plant converts from coal to gas, it's a real task convert back. No 30 day coal pile, the conveyors have been dismantled, equipment sold, and the handlers are down the road kicking cans. It's so much easier to use the pipeline and accept the price increases. The PUC will approve the rate hikes anyway.

[thackney]

As an aside, natural gas providers have a history of working together. Consider their shared use of pipelines.

I suspect you don't understand how gas transmission lines work. They are like a train or trucking company. Rarely is the line owner an owner of the gas. They are a transport company, hauling other companies gas, usually a long term contract.

[kitchen]

I suspect you don't understand how gas transmission lines work.

And you would be wrong. Pipelines are not at all like any other transportation segment. They're more akin to power transmission systems. They move only a single commodity.

Trucking (or rail) transport every other commodity, from coal to canned peaches. As an example of how fractured rail transportation is, it is not out of the question that every car on a 100 unit train would have a different owner.

[thackney]

And gas transmission pipelines often carry gas from dozens of ow ERS at the same time.