Actually it was the October "surprise" Democrat strategy of Mark Foley that ushered in Pelosi.
The Dems screamed about gay Foley and then put San Franciso in charge of the House. Imagine that.
The media was beating Republicans over the head with Katrina and Iraq (and that Valerie Plame garbage and the trumped up charges against Tom Delay) for months before the election. I quit watching Fox News in like Spring 2006 because all the stories were about how the rats were gonna win.
The Foley scandal was a contributing factor, but hardly the determining one.