So if there is no cure yet, and there is a 90% or so (varying reports) survival rate, to the survivors walk among us in the population? Where are the survivors?
Will these two people if they are “better” be released into the population?
What a better way to get developed countries to fast track a vaccine or cure than to spread it to those nations?
That 90% is the death rate. E.g 100 people infected 90 die. It says the death rate has been reduced by 60%, I guess that means .9X.6 = .54, .9-.54 = .36 or 36 %. So 100 people infected 36 die.
Depends on the virus strain as to the survival rate. There are 5 strains identified, one of those is specific to animals. The worst is a 90% death expectation. The next most prevalent is 60% deaths, but I am not clear which strain this is that is flaring up today. It appears to be the 60% one, based on numbers from the area..
The survivors are obviously in Africa. There is a great deal of work that has been done to chart this stuff since the seventies when it was first ID’d.
Yes, the survivors are released after a period of isolation and testing. Albeit with potentially debilitating joint pain and other damages. Why would they not be..?
Once he becomes asymptomatic, the clock starts on his body clearing the virus. I’ve seen anywhere from 7 weeks to 60 days before all his secretions are clear of the virus. Then another clock starts. I’ve seen either 21d or 42d before the area can be declared ebola free.
So we’ll know by Thanksgiving or Christmas if Emory has dropped the ball or not.
Many times the recovered have mental problems, ongoing physical issues related to mobility and/or blindness.
These are the first (known) human Ebola victims in the U.S. Ebola has been here in primates. The virus particles can stay in certain areas of the body for a time after ‘recovering’ .... for example, men should not have sex for at least 3 months after recovering from Ebola or until their semen tests clear of the Ebola virus; otherwise, they can transmit it. I would imagine that the Ebola patients will undergo a lot of testing before returning to their families and the general public. In Africa, there are plenty of Ebola survivors .... current fatality rate is about 60% which is low for Ebola Zaire (the strain going around & the most deadly of all the strains - around 90% fatality, usually). One of the reasons for a better survival rate (and higher number of people infected) is that this outbreak is in western Africa (more medical help/more travel centers) rather than in more isolated areas in central Africa. There are a lot of “unknowns” still with Ebola .... some indication it can spread through the air (pigs to monkeys). Viruses tend to mutate to survive (AIDS is a good example) so the “givens” regarding Ebola, Marburg, etc. could & likely will change over time (IMO).
The virus stays in the system for up to 7 weeks after recovery.
So I’d imagine they’ll be isolated for at least that long.
There’s been only a handful of Ebola outbreaks to get into the low 3 digits. At most, only a few hundred ever recovered from it. More people have Ebola in this outbreak than all previous outbreaks combined.
It is the death rate of this type of Ebola that has been 90%, not the survival rate. According to this article the recent outbreak death rate is 60% but I have not seen that anywhere else.